Bitcoin has spent April staging a recovery from its March lows, briefly topping $79,000, but some analysts view the move as a mid-bear-market rally ahead of a deeper correction.
Analyst Killa — who in June 2025 forecast a cycle top of $121,362 (about 3.9% below the actual all-time high of $126,100 in October 2025) — has applied the same model that nailed the top to project the cycle bottom. The model is based on the idea that each successive Bitcoin cycle produces a smaller high-to-bottom multiple as the market matures.
Killa’s dataset across five cycles shows the high-to-bottom multiple declining from 15.50x in Cycle 1 to 7.64x, 6.26x, and 4.47x in Cycle 4 (where Bitcoin peaked near $69,800 and bottomed at $15,600). Extrapolating the same rate of reduction gives a current-cycle multiple of about 3.25x. Dividing the $126,100 cycle top by 3.25 yields a base bottom target of $38,800.
To account for the roughly 5% variance that affected his top call, Killa added two upside scenarios: $40,740 and $42,680. Given Bitcoin trading near $78,000 at the time of the forecast, a drop to $42,680 would be roughly a 45% decline, while $38,800 implies close to a 50% correction from current levels.
A separate analyst, CryptoBullet, supports the view of a deeper, drawn-out correction from a symmetry and Elliott Wave perspective. CryptoBullet characterizes the 2022–2025 advance as a five-wave move that completed around the $126,000 peak, with the ensuing decline forming a W‑X‑Y corrective structure. That count projects a final Wave Y down below $50,000 — toward $45,000.
CryptoBullet argues that three years of upward price action (from the November 2022 low through the 2025 peak) are unlikely to be fully erased in less than a year of decline, implying the bear phase could extend into the second half of 2026 before a lasting bottom is in place.