The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said March Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation increased 0.9% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year. The print was a touch below some forecasts but still well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal. A sharp rise in energy costs tied to the Iran conflict was the main driver: the energy index jumped nearly 11%, with gasoline up about 21.2%.
Controlling inflation is central to the Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment, and those aims shape interest-rate policy that influences Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Lower interest rates generally support asset prices by boosting credit and liquidity, while higher rates can limit capital flows into risk assets.
Traders see no chance of a rate cut at the April Federal Open Market Committee meeting, according to CME Group’s FedWatch. The tool shows a 98.4% probability that the FOMC will hold rates steady, with odds of cuts only creeping up later in the year. Fed officials remain split on whether to cut in 2026 amid inflationary pressures from the ongoing war, and additional hikes have not been ruled out.
Bitcoin climbed more than 1.5% after the CPI release and briefly touched about $73,000. Matt Mena, senior crypto research strategist at 21Shares, said the $73,000–$75,000 area is the next major target; if Bitcoin clears that range, expect a period of sideways consolidation before a push toward $80,000. He added that passage of the Clarity Act could set the stage for $100,000 Bitcoin and a total crypto market capitalization of roughly $3 trillion–$3.2 trillion by the end of Q2.
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