Hyperliquid’s native token HYPE retested $45 on Tuesday, its highest level since Oct. 31, 2025, extending a 108% rebound from the yearly low of $21 on Jan. 21. The move brings HYPE closer to its all-time high but market signals show uneven demand, with muted spot buying raising questions about the rally’s durability.
HYPE currently trades about 26% below its $59 peak. Relatively light resistance sits between current prices and that top, with the next notable liquidity band roughly between $48 and $52—reachable if momentum persists. Nevertheless, several on-chain and derivatives metrics imply the advance lacks broad-based conviction.
The spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) has fallen to about -$41.48 million even as the price climbed, a pattern consistent with passive rather than aggressive spot buying. On the futures side, CVD has been largely flat around -$748 million over the past month after recovering from lows near -$900 million. Open interest has risen to roughly $1.38 billion, approaching local highs; this shows greater participation but not necessarily a bullish consensus. When open interest increases while futures CVD remains weak, positions can be more vulnerable to liquidation-driven volatility if the price reverses.
Bull case commentary has been voiced by figures such as BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who in March suggested HYPE could reach $150 by August if Hyperliquid expands its futures market share and product offering. That scenario depends on continued growth in centralized-exchange-like volumes and rising protocol revenue. In March, Hyperliquid’s 30-day annualized revenue run rate was reported at $843 million; hitting Hayes’ $150 target would imply roughly $1.4 billion in run-rate revenue by August, a roughly 66% increase in five months. The protocol’s policy of allocating up to 97% of revenue to buy HYPE on the open market creates a direct link between trading activity and token demand.
Protocol upgrades and new product lines may help. HIP-3, which enables trading of non-crypto assets such as commodities, already contributes close to 10% of revenue and could support further expansion if assets like gold and oil attract more activity. Real-world asset (RWA) engagement has accelerated: Hyperliquid’s RWA open interest climbed to about $2.3 billion on April 6, roughly a 190% increase from March and nearly 800% above early-year lows.
Taken together, stronger protocol revenue, aggressive buyback mechanics and rising RWA activity provide a plausible foundation for continued upside. At the same time, the divergence between rising prices and weak spot buying suggests the rally may be fragile and prone to sharp reversals if aggressive demand does not materialize.
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