Ether slid to a year-to-date low of $1,927 on Thursday, more than 60% below its all-time high of $4,950. Onchain metrics and exchange flows suggest the move is testing investor conviction and may mark a broader bear phase. While mid-sized holders are cutting exposure, large wallets have been accumulating and absorbing some of the sell pressure — but it’s unclear whether that will help ETH reclaim $2,000.
What to watch
– Mid-sized holders (100–10,000 ETH) have reduced balances, a sign of retail and mid-tier capitulation.
– Large holders (10,000+ ETH) increased positions over the past quarter, indicating accumulation by whales and institutions.
– Every cohort’s realized price sits above the current market price, and rising exchange inflows raise the risk of further downside.
Onchain distribution shows shifting holder behavior
Balance-by-holder-value data over the last five months reveals divergent moves across wallet sizes. CryptoQuant reported that on Aug. 18, 2025, wallets holding 100–1,000 ETH held 9.79 million ETH; 1,000–10,000 held 14.51 million ETH; 10,000–100,000 held 17.18 million ETH; and 100,000-plus wallets held 2.75 million ETH.
By the most recent update, balances for the 100–1,000 and 1,000–10,000 cohorts dropped to 8.32 million ETH and 12.26 million ETH, respectively. At the same time, 10,000–100,000 wallets increased to 19.77 million ETH and 100,000-plus wallets rose to 3.68 million ETH. The pattern points to distribution by smaller and mid-sized holders amid weakness and accumulation by larger entities.
Realized-price dynamics add pressure
Each cohort’s realized price — the average cost basis at which that group last moved ETH — currently sits above market. Realized prices cluster roughly between $2,120 for the largest wallets and about $2,690 for the 100–1,000 ETH cohort. ETH briefly closed below the aggregate realized price of about $2,630 on Saturday, a level often associated with stress-driven selling.
Exchange inflows and execution data favor the bears
Binance recorded a surge of roughly 1.63 million ETH inflows on Wednesday, the largest daily inflow since 2022. Large deposits to exchanges often precede selling or rebalancing, and such a spike amid weak prices increases downside risk.
Market execution data supports a bearish bias. Analyst PelinayPA noted Ether’s Binance taker buy/sell ratio is around 0.94 — below the neutral 1 — with the 30- and 50-day averages also under 1, implying sustained selling pressure rather than a brief dip. Some commentators now warn this could mark the start of a prolonged “bear season” for the altcoin.
High-profile selling and disclosed withdrawals have also been reported, adding to downside catalysts.
Disclaimer
This rewritten summary is informational only and not investment advice. All trading and investment decisions involve risk; readers should do their own research before acting.