Bitcoin faces a tense week as technical signs of a bullish reversal compete with geopolitical and macroeconomic risks.
Key takeaways
– The weekly MACD is near a bullish cross for the first time in almost a year; the last weekly flip in May 2025 preceded roughly $25,000 of gains over two months.
– Short time frames showed large liquidations as leverage concentrated around the $70,000 area.
– Heightened Iran-related tensions and a US deadline dubbed “Bridge Day” / “Power Plant Day” by President Trump raise geopolitical uncertainty.
– Two major US inflation releases (PCE and CPI) could reflect oil-price and war-driven shocks.
– A bearish “second bear flag” structure remains intact, and many analysts view new lows as likely unless price breaks structure.
Weekly MACD teases a major cross
On the weekly charts Bitcoin has reclaimed the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) and the weekly MACD is close to turning positive — a technical signal that, if confirmed, would imply the multi-week downtrend may be losing steam. Crypto commentators noted the importance of holding the 200-week EMA for confidence across the market; Ether’s weekly MACD was also approaching a potential cross.
The prior bullish weekly MACD flip came in May 2025 about a month after the cycle low near $74,500. Over the following two months BTC moved from roughly $94,000 to about $119,000. Historical comparisons cited by some analysts show similar MACD timing in prior bear markets, with roughly 245 days elapsing before a weekly MACD turned positive in both 2018 and 2022 — a timeline that would align with a late-April flip in 2026.
Liquidations and renewed speculative activity
After Bitcoin pushed back above $70,000 following the weekly close, the move triggered heavy liquidations: CoinGlass reported crypto liquidations exceeding $250 million within a 24-hour window. Traders flagged liquidity clusters near $64,000–$64,500 and warned those levels could attract downside hunts.
On-chain and derivatives metrics showed increasing speculative participation, particularly on Binance. CryptoQuant data pointed to rising cumulative net taker volume and open interest, and contributors noted that sustained inflows into derivatives could amplify short-term momentum if they continue.
Geopolitics: Iran tensions and US deadline
Geopolitical developments are adding fresh volatility. Markets remain sensitive to the US–Israel–Iran conflict and related disruptions, including partial closures around the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude traded above $115/barrel early in the week, and traders keyed on a deadline referenced by President Trump as “Bridge Day” or “Power Plant Day” for potential strikes if no agreement materializes. That deadline created concentrated risk around the specified hour.
There were also mixed reports about a possible 45-day ceasefire attempt; S&P 500 futures pared losses on such headlines, underlining how quickly risk assets can swing on war-related news. Macro investor James Lavish warned a “black swan” shock could produce a significant BTC drawdown — he cited a severe scenario of roughly a 20% drop.
Inflation prints could reflect war-driven shocks
Markets must also absorb two major US inflation releases this week: the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). February’s PCE met expectations but may not yet have captured full war-driven price pressure. Analysts cautioned that sustained high oil — and potential fertilizer-related food shocks — could push inflation higher.
One modeling note suggested that if oil remains above $115/barrel for about seven weeks, US CPI might drift up toward roughly 3.7% year-over-year versus a base-case nearer 3.0%, which would still be above the Fed’s 2% target. The most recent CPI was flat month-over-month, and Fed futures showed almost no chance of a policy move at the upcoming April FOMC; nevertheless, persistent upside in inflation would matter for policy and risk assets.
Bear-flag setup keeps downside on the table
Despite the weekly MACD setup, many traders remain cautious because a bearish structure persists. Several participants view BTC/USD as inside a second 2026 bear flag; the first bear flag in January preceded a roughly $25,000 drop. Material Indicators cofounder Keith Alan said the current pattern still resembles the prior bear-flag formation and is being treated as a roadmap until price decisively deviates.
Some analysts expect the February wick below $60,000 to be revisited. A pseudonymous trader known as LP suggested new lows are “likely just a matter of time,” advising close attention to how repeated low sweeps affect traders’ willingness to enter longs — repeated sweeps can change the psychology around bottom formation. Alan outlined a possible measured move to the mid-$40,000s if bear-flag support breaks, while also noting resistance tests could occur in the $67,000–$69,000 area before another leg lower. An end to hostilities or a strong opening to Q2 could invalidate the bear flag and shift the outlook.
Watchlist
– Whether the weekly MACD cross confirms and if weekly closes hold above the 200-week EMA.
– Liquidity bands around $64,000–$64,500 and the February wick lows near $60,000.
– Derivatives metrics: Binance open interest, cumulative taker volume, and overall leverage.
– Oil price trajectory and the upcoming PCE/CPI prints for implications on Fed policy.
– Geopolitical headlines: Iran-related developments, ceasefire chatter, and any strikes or escalation.
This piece is informational and not investment advice. All trading involves risk; readers should do their own research before making decisions.