After topping out at $126,100 in October 2025, Bitcoin went through a sharp pullback, sliding to about $60,000 in early February. XWIN Research Japan characterizes the recent weakness as a structural re-evaluation of the market for the leading cryptocurrency.
XWIN, drawing on CryptoQuant data and charts from founder Ki Young Ju, focuses on two on-chain indicators—exchange reserves and ETF flows—to gauge supply and demand. Exchange reserves have been declining steadily since 2024, indicating that holders increasingly prefer private custody over selling. That shrinking available supply, combined with persistent demand, helped fuel more than a 200% rally into the all-time high.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have been a major source of institutional demand, accumulating about $55.37 billion in net inflows and roughly $87.07 billion in net assets within two years of launch. But after the peak, ETFs experienced a pullback: SoSoValue reports around $6.38 billion in net outflows from November through February, a withdrawal of institutional buying that contributed to the correction. XWIN frames the Spot ETF as a structural element shaping the market cycle.
More recently, ETF outflows have steadied. Big withdrawals halted as many institutions appear to have finished portfolio rebalancing; the last two trading weeks produced combined net inflows of $1.36 billion. XWIN describes the market as undergoing a supply-and-demand rebalance and notes that a sustained resumption of ETF inflows would be needed to establish a clearer directional bias.
Price snapshot: Bitcoin is trading near $67,372, about 4.34% higher over the past month.
Sources: XWIN Research Japan analysis, CryptoQuant charts (Ki Young Ju), SoSoValue, TradingView.