Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) is closing in on a pivotal weekly area that could determine whether the recent pullback turns into a lasting bottom or leads to further losses. Analysts point to a repeat of the early-2023 pattern — a weekly RSI bullish divergence, with RSI making a higher low while price stalls or posts lower lows — as a reliable precursor to a longer-term recovery.
Trader Jelle has flagged the current setup, noting that when BTC’s weekly RSI makes a higher low again, ‘it’s time to pay attention.’ He emphasizes that the exact price action can vary — a higher low, equal low, or even a lower low in price can still preserve the RSI recovery signal — but the key is the RSI itself turning up on the weekly chart.
Charts shared by Jelle show the RSI approaching the same zone that preceded the 2023 rebound, which coincided with Bitcoin reclaiming the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) as support in March 2023. That 200-week EMA was lost again last month, and some analysts have labeled it less reliable after the recent breakdown.
Adding caution, other technicals indicate a possible bear-flag forming, a pattern that can precede a continuation to the downside and risk another support break similar to January’s move. Historically, prior bear markets have lasted around a year; Bitcoin’s peak was roughly 23 weeks ago, prompting some traders, including Jelle, to remain patient and avoid rushing back into the market.
What to watch: if weekly RSI forms a higher low and begins rising, the setup will echo the last cycle’s recovery and could mark a nearby bottom. If RSI fails to turn up and the bear-flag breaks down, downside risk would likely reassert itself.
This is not investment advice. All trading involves risk; do your own research before making decisions.