Bitcoin (BTC) is closing in on the average entry price for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF investors, roughly $79,900, as on-chain indicators and fund flows point to renewed accumulation and a shrinking gap between market price and ETF cost basis.
ETF breakeven approaching a key technical test
Sustained trading above $70,000 has sharpened focus on the ETF breakeven level. That cost-basis zone acted as support in mid‑2024, and pushing past it would return many ETF holders to breakeven. Researcher Axel Adler Jr. reports that ETF flows flipped to net positive after a stretch of outflows through mid‑February. The seven‑day average has moved into steady inflows, with daily creations topping 3,300 BTC on March 2. Over the past month ETF holdings rose from 1,264,982 BTC to 1,291,618 BTC, a net increase of 26,636 BTC.
The ETF cost basis also lines up with a major daily trend indicator: a decisive move above this range would reclaim the 100‑day exponential moving average (EMA) on the daily chart for the first time since October 2025. A sustained break above the 100‑day EMA would suggest a shift toward a longer‑term uptrend and bolster bullish momentum.
Buy-side pressure is building
Order‑flow across major venues indicates buyers are beginning to outpace sellers. Analyst Darkfost notes the 30‑day volume delta on Binance and Coinbase has turned positive following heavy selling in February, with both retail and institutional flows tilting toward accumulation. Futures metrics back this view: Amr Taha highlights that Binance’s cumulative volume delta (CVD) has recovered by nearly $6 billion from its lows, signaling aggressive buying since BTC traded near $63,000, although the CVD remains below zero and some prior selling pressure persists.
Short‑term holder metrics corroborate easing selling
Short‑term holder indicators also point to reduced selling pressure. CryptoQuant’s spent‑output profit ratio (SOPR) for short‑term holders moved back above 1, which implies coins are being sold at or above cost and that liquidation pressure has eased. Analyst miracleyoon adds that recent capitulation signals appear to have cleared weaker hands, though the flush was not as severe as the August 5, 2024 event.
Outlook
Taken together — ETF fund flows, exchange order flow, futures CVD, and SOPR — the data suggest Bitcoin is positioned to test the $80,000 area. A sustained break above the ETF breakeven zone and the 100‑day EMA would be an important confirmation of renewed bullish momentum in the weeks ahead.
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