Bitcoin staged a recovery after a rough weekend, partly fueled by reports of a possible U.S.–Iran agreement. Still, setting geopolitics aside, the current chart structure warns new buyers that they could be stepping into a decline rather than a safe entry.
Chart analyst Aksel Kibar highlighted a daily BTC chart on X showing an ascending channel that has guided price action for several months. An ascending channel is formed by two parallel, upward-sloping trendlines: the upper line linking higher highs (resistance) and the lower line connecting higher lows (support). Price has been oscillating between those boundaries since February, indicating an overall uptrend but leaving room for pullbacks.
BTC recently printed a swing high near $82,500 and is now retracing. Kibar’s annotated chart points to the channel’s lower boundary as a likely target, placing potential support around $72,500 in the short term. If price falls to that area and the lower trendline holds, Bitcoin could bounce and resume its climb toward the channel’s upper boundary.
The key resistance to watch on an upside recovery sits slightly above $86,000, where the upper channel line converges with the 365-day moving average. A decisive break above that zone would likely signal stronger bullish momentum and open the door to further gains.
Conversely, if BTC fails to hold near $72,500, Kibar warns of a steeper correction. A break below the channel’s lower boundary could accelerate selling pressure and push price down toward roughly $60,000, where he expects a potential short-term reversal.
Kibar also noted he would only consider initiating a long trade once price clears the 365-day moving average, viewing that indicator as a meaningful threshold for the start of a sustainable bull market.
Price snapshot: at the time of writing, Bitcoin sits around $76,762, representing roughly a 2% gain over the past 24 hours.
In short, the technical outlook suggests a vulnerable short-term environment: a drop toward $72.5K would be consistent with the channel pattern and could offer a buying opportunity if support holds, while a breach could lead to a deeper pullback toward $60K. Traders should watch the lower channel line and the 365-day moving average for clues about the next major leg.
