Bitcoin’s price action has entered a fifth consecutive week of consolidation since the Feb. 6 low near $60,000, with daily ranges narrowing as recent highs and lows compress. The market is forming a wedge of higher lows against lower highs, a structure that some traders interpret as a potential breakout setup, especially in light of renewed institutional interest such as Morgan Stanley’s planned spot BTC ETF and sizable purchases reported by Strategy.
Despite those flows, many technicians remain cautious about the overall trend. Independent analyst filbfilb wrote on Telegram that the outlook is “still bearish overall,” while flagging the 50-day moving average and a diagonal resistance trendline as levels that could invalidate that bearish view. He pointed to the 50-DMA, roughly $68,800, as a key pivot: BTC is testing that former support-turned-resistance area and its behavior there will be telling.
Michael van de Poppe of MN Fund echoed a defensive stance, suggesting a short-term bearish resumption is more a matter of “when” than “if,” and noting that relief bounces often get sold back into. Those warnings reflect an underlying market structure that leans toward downside risk until clear technical breaks occur.
Still, Bitcoin has shown resilience in the $67,000–$68,000 band this week, holding up even as oil rallied past $105 and geopolitical tensions in Iran added risk to macro markets. On the upside, a decisive clearance of about $68,879—the approximate 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the recent move—would open a possible path toward $82,000. Supporting that bullish scenario are a VPVR gap on the daily chart and liquidation heatmaps that reveal short-liquidity clusters near $68,500–$70,000 and $72,000–$74,000; hitting those levels could trigger short squeezes and push price higher on forced liquidations.
In short, market participants are watching two things closely: whether BTC can convincingly clear the 50-DMA/diagonal resistance and break above the $68,800–$69,000 area, or whether the pattern resolves lower in a continuation of the prevailing bearish structure. Both outcomes are possible and will likely hinge on order flow and macro headlines.
This rewrite is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. All trading and investing involve risk; readers should perform their own research and consider seeking professional advice before making financial decisions. The information presented here is based on available sources and analysis but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete.