Bitcoin’s bid to hold a recently reclaimed support level broke down on Thursday as buying momentum faded and traders urged continued caution.
Key takeaways:
– Bitcoin failed to sustain support around $69,000–$70,000 after a brief rebound.
– Market participants are cautious across short and long time frames.
– Analysts say it may be premature to declare the bear market over.
Price action: weakness resumes below $70K
BTC/USD slid toward $67,000, dipping more than 1% intraday after buyers could not maintain gains above $70,000. The pair had climbed to about $70,040 the previous day as bulls pushed into two notable technical zones: the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) and the prior 2021 cycle highs.
Those zones did not hold as support. Analyst Rekt Capital warned the 200-week EMA is now acting as resistance and noted that while price remains under that moving average, historical patterns favor further downside.
Other traders pointed out that the rally stalled after clearing a ladder of liquidity beneath $69,000, with momentum fading once those areas were absorbed. Rather than declaring a trend reversal, market participants emphasized the rejection against previous cycle highs and shorter-term trend lines and advised a cautious approach.
Market cycle context: “too soon” to call a bottom
Several analysts argued the current drawdown still looks young by historical measures. The shortest prior Bitcoin bear market lasted about 365 days; at the time of the rebound Bitcoin was roughly 140 days into this cycle, suggesting it could be early to assume the downturn has ended.
Traders also compared typical peak-to-trough drawdowns from past cycles, which have approached 80%. From the October 2025 all-time high of $126,200 to the 15-month lows in February, Bitcoin’s maximum drawdown was about 53% — considerably shallower than the deeper declines in some earlier cycles.
Some market voices cautioned against reading a single short rally as the bottom. Monthly and weekly timeframes still show no decisive reversal, they said, and more evidence is needed before labeling the bear market finished.
Market view
The failed reclaim highlights persistent resistance at key technical levels and a market that remains vulnerable to further downside until longer-term moving averages and higher-timeframe structures flip convincingly to support. Short-term rallies can produce meaningful moves, but analysts stress that a few days of strength do not invalidate a broader downtrend.
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