Bitcoin traded around $66,450 on Thursday, reflecting a 47% decline from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000. That pullback has pushed a large portion of coins into unrealized losses and underscores persistent downside risks for holders at current levels.
At a glance
– The 47% drawdown from the $126,000 peak has created roughly $598.7 billion in unrealized losses.
– On-chain and market metrics point to continued distribution and limited buying from U.S. investors.
Extent of losses and on-chain parallels to 2022
BTC/USD is about 24% below the 2026 year open of $87,500 after closing 2025 lower. At the prevailing price of $66,450, roughly 8.8 million BTC are held at a loss — more than 44% of circulating supply — amounting to about $598.7 billion in unrealized losses, per Glassnode. The firm said this scale “structurally resembles conditions observed in Q2 2022,” when the market required roughly 3 million BTC to change hands from loss-realizing holders to new buyers before recovery.
Glassnode and other analysts say resolving a supply overhang of this size has historically meant meaningful redistribution of coins from sellers who took losses to buyers willing to purchase at lower prices.
Capitulation among long-term holders
Sustained paper losses have eroded holder conviction and prompted some long-term holders (LTHs) — defined as investors holding BTC longer than 155 days — to sell below their cost basis. LTH realized loss, the dollar value of Bitcoin sold at a loss by these holders, has climbed to about $200 million, which Glassnode interprets as evidence of “active capitulation.” The firm added that a drop in LTH realized loss toward levels below about $25 million per day would be a more convincing sign that selling pressure is exhausting, a typical precursor to base formation and a durable bull-market transition.
ETF holders and flows
Bitcoin’s spot price sits below the average cost basis of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holders, estimated at $83,408, suggesting ETF investors are increasingly under water. Meanwhile, global Bitcoin investment products recorded more than $194 million in net outflows for the week ending March 27, indicating risk-off behavior among institutional and retail product investors.
Apparent demand and market distribution
Apparent demand metrics have been negative since mid-December 2025, reflecting continued selling pressure. Capriole Investment’s Bitcoin Apparent Demand metric showed demand at -1,623 BTC on Thursday, signaling sellers remain in control. CryptoQuant likewise says the contraction in total apparent demand points to “selling from retail” and indicates the market is in distribution.
Coinbase’s Premium Index, which measures the price gap between Coinbase and Binance, remains negative — a sign U.S. buyers have not broadly re-entered the market. CryptoQuant notes this negative premium is consistent with on-chain demand contraction.
Near-term outlook and risk
Analysts warn that, with the U.S. dollar strengthening and demand metrics weak, Bitcoin faces the risk of testing new lows in the short term unless selling pressure eases and redistribution finishes.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and follows Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments carry risk; readers should perform independent research before making decisions. No guarantee is made as to the accuracy or completeness of the information, and neither the publisher nor the writer are liable for losses arising from reliance on this content.