Market participants say Bitcoin’s recent climb to about $76,000 marks a clear momentum shift and confirms a short-term uptrend in BTC/USD, but analysts warn the move could meet resistance near the $78,000 area.
Onchain data from Glassnode shows short-term holder (STH) supply in profit — the portion of recently acquired coins held at unrealized gains — remains well below the historical mean that typically signals local tops. Glassnode notes the statistical mean sits near 54.2%, a level where profit-taking among STHs often leads to distribution. At roughly 43.2% today, STHs in profit are “meaningfully below” that exhaustion threshold, leaving room for further upside while also identifying a quantitative level to watch as price advances.
Analyst McKenna pointed out Bitcoin is still in “deep under extension territory” relative to its 50-week simple moving average. Markets that deviate strongly from their mean often revert, but the recent shift in momentum has made her directionally bullish. She said a confirmed hold above $74,000 on a higher time frame (HTF) would be the final trigger she needs to feel confident Bitcoin could reach the mid-to-high $80,000s in the coming weeks.
A weakening U.S. dollar index is another cited tailwind. Bitcoin Archive and other observers say the falling dollar — together with rising onchain activity and improving technical setup — supports the case for additional gains.
Several onchain metrics highlight key levels to monitor. From its $126,000 all-time high, Bitcoin has experienced about a 41% drawdown, which pushed BTC below several important reference points: the active realized price (~$85,100), the STH cost basis (~$80,950), and the true market mean (~$78,140). At the current price near $74,000, BTC sits roughly 5.2% below the true market mean, a metric that tracks the cost basis of active supply. While price has yet to decisively test and stay above that mean, Glassnode says a mid-term spike toward and potentially above it remains possible.
Cost-basis distribution underlines the $78,000 area’s importance: more than 200,000 BTC changed hands around that level, creating a concentration of likely sellers. Immediate major support is identified near $72,000, where the 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages converge and roughly 220,000 BTC were acquired. Beneath that, a $65,000–$70,000 demand zone is viewed as a critical base; it acted as support in October–November 2024 and helped fuel the October 2024–January 2025 rally.
A decisive drop under $70,000 would be seen as a sign that bears are retaking control and would increase the probability of a deeper decline toward $60,000.
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