Overview
Bitcoin remains under heavy selling pressure as bears try to keep price beneath the critical $74,508 level. Several major altcoins are also struggling to hold support, increasing the risk that the broader downtrend resumes. Galaxy Digital research lead Alex Thorn warned BTC could revisit its realized price near $56,000 in the coming weeks if no catalysts arrive. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, by contrast, says markets could rebound sooner than expected.
Context: weekly SMA and historical precedent
When BTC has closed below the 100-week simple moving average in the past, it tended to remain under that line for extended periods, typically 182 to 532 days. The 2020 COVID flash crash was an exception that resolved more quickly. That history raises the possibility of an extended corrective phase unless buyers can convincingly reclaim key levels.
Bitcoin (BTC)
Buyers are struggling to hold $74,508. A break below $72,945 would signal a resumed downtrend and could push BTC toward strong support in the $60,000 area. The RSI is oversold, so a short-term relief rally is possible; a daily close above $79,500 would open the door to gains toward the $84,000 breakdown region. Lower-case scenario: failure to defend $72,945 likely targets $60,000 and potentially lower toward the realized price of about $56,000.
Ether (ETH)
ETH found temporary support at $2,111, but the bounce has been weak. A break under $2,111 would expose $1,750. On the upside, the oversold RSI supports a relief move to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at about $2,467 and then toward the 20-day EMA near $2,712. A daily close above the 20-day EMA would suggest bulls are regaining control.
BNB
BNB is trading below $790, which raises the risk of a drop under $730. A decisive close below $730 would confirm $790 as resistance and could send BNB down to $700 and then $645. Bulls need to defend $730 and push above $790 to target the 20-day EMA, roughly $839, to shift momentum.
XRP
Failure to sustain $1.61 shows sellers are active on relief rallies. Bears may try to break the descending channel support; a decisive break could retest the Oct. 10, 2025 low near $1.25. For bulls to change the short-term picture, XRP must rise above the 20-day EMA, around $1.79, and clear the downtrend line.
Solana (SOL)
Bulls could not clear $107 and sellers pulled SOL below $95. A close below $95 would signal the next down leg toward roughly $79. Conversely, a recovery above $107 would indicate a possible bear trap and could lift SOL toward the 20-day EMA near $117, where resistance is likely.
Dogecoin (DOGE)
DOGE’s shallow bounce suggests selling pressure remains intact. If DOGE turns down from current levels or the 20-day EMA near $0.12 and drops below $0.10, the downtrend may resume toward $0.08. A clear move above the moving averages could fuel a run toward $0.16.
Cardano (ADA)
ADA is attempting a bounce from the descending-channel support, but the relief lacks conviction. If ADA fails from current levels or the 20-day EMA near $0.33 and breaks the channel support, the decline could extend to $0.20. Conversely, clearing the 20-day EMA and the downtrend line would open a path toward $0.50.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH)
BCH’s recovery is meeting resistance near the 50% retracement at about $535, indicating seller interest at higher levels. A drop below $497 would risk further declines to $467 and $443. If buyers can push BCH above $544, the pair could rise to the 20-day EMA near $562 and, with momentum, toward $604.
Hyperliquid (HYPE)
HYPE pierced $35.50 but showed upper wicks, signaling selling at higher prices. If buyers hold, a sustained break above $35.50 could run to $44 and suggest the corrective phase may be ending. If HYPE falls below the 20-day EMA, around $28.79, it may oscillate longer between $35.50 and $20.82.
Monero (XMR)
XMR is trying to hold support at $360, but relief rallies face resistance at $412 and the 20-day EMA near $461. Failure to advance would put $360 at risk, with the next support at $320. A climb above the 20-day EMA could clear the way toward $500, where selling historically intensifies.
Bottom line
Market internals and price action show bulls under pressure across major tokens. Oversold indicators leave room for short-term relief rallies, but many key supports must hold to avoid deeper declines. A convincing reclaim of moving averages and downtrend lines would be needed to shift sentiment back to risk-on. Absent fresh positive catalysts, downside scenarios that test lower structural supports remain plausible.
Disclaimer
This article is informational and not investment advice. Trading and investing involve risk, and readers should do their own research before making decisions. Forward-looking comments are subject to uncertainty and risk; no guarantee is made about accuracy or completeness and no liability is assumed for losses from reliance on this information.