Bitcoin approached the end of April trading near $80,000 as traders watched for key breakouts and the possibility of retests.
Weekly technical milestone
Bitcoin recorded its first weekly close above the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) since October 2025, overcoming a trend line that had capped price action for six months. The last time weekly candles settled above the band was near ~$115,000. Analysts had emphasized the 21-week EMA as a critical level: reclaiming it as support is seen by some as necessary to avoid a deeper retracement toward roughly $73,000. The 21-week EMA now sits at the upper boundary of the market’s bull-support band, paired with the 20-week simple moving average (SMA) around $76,550. In October price had briefly closed fully above both lines.
Market reactions and trader views
Several prominent traders flagged the weekly close as meaningful. Rekt Capital and Daan Crypto Trades both suggested that holding the band could confirm the end of the downtrend and spark a relief rally. On shorter timeframes the picture remains mixed: bulls have made progress but have struggled to lock in decisive breakouts.
Michaël van de Poppe said a break above $79,000 would increase the odds of a run toward $100,000, while warning that, without a clear breakout, consolidation and renewed resistance tests are likely. He and others prefer to see the $73,500+ area hold as support.
Liquidity structure and short-term risk
Liquidity traders highlighted potential grab zones between $70,000 and $80,000. Some participants warned that upside liquidation cascades could be engineered above $79,000 before price seeks lower liquidity around $70,000. After the weekly close, data from CoinGlass and trader-shared heatmaps showed short-liquidation flows above $79,000 followed by a quick move lower that caught newly placed longs.
Macro backdrop: Fed, inflation, and geopolitics
Macro forces are amplifying near-term uncertainty. Hopes for negotiation in the US-Iran conflict briefly supported risk appetite, but tensions left markets sensitive to news. The Federal Reserve’s rate decision, Jerome Powell’s press conference, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge were set to generate volatility. This meeting will be Powell’s final FOMC as chair before an expected transition, a change that historical analysis links to higher market swings; Mosaic Asset Company noted the average S&P 500 drawdown in years of new Fed leadership has been about 20%.
On-chain signs and the case for a structural bottom
Several on-chain analysts argued the worst of capitulation may be behind Bitcoin. CryptoQuant noted institutions largely refrained from selling during the Hormuz shock, which reduced the impact of derivatives liquidations and helped stabilize price. Other contributors described a clearing out of weaker hands earlier in the year, with a February apex — spot near $62,800 and realized price roughly $55,300 — acting as a structural bottom where panic subsided and institutional capital began to provide support.
US macro data and path dependency
US economic readings could influence whether BTC revisits prior lows. Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data moving back into expansion would support risk assets and potentially reduce the chance of a deep retest. Commentators like Matthew Hyland see a higher low scenario — nearer $60,000 — as more likely absent a severe black-swan event.
Conclusion
The weekly close above the 21-week EMA is a notable technical development and a potential sign of stabilization, but short-term liquidity dynamics and upcoming macro events keep the outlook uncertain. On-chain indicators and select institutional activity point to improving structure, yet traders remain cautious about possible retests in the $70,000–$73,000 area as markets digest Fed decisions, inflation data, and geopolitical headlines.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All trading carries risk; readers should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.