Bitcoin slipped below the $69,000 area as the weekend began, prompting some traders to warn that a deeper macro low may still lie ahead.
Price action and sentiment
Data from TradingView showed BTC losing more than $4,000 relative to the daily open, with the old 2021 all-time high now acting as resistance rather than support. Short-term buying produced a bounce, but many market participants characterized it as a relief rally rather than evidence that the market has bottomed.
Caution from analysts
Keith Alan, cofounder of Material Indicators, warned on X that there is no clear evidence the cycle low is in and advised prioritizing capital preservation. He described the recent strength as temporary and noted that the $60,000 area offered a brief opportunity, but that lower prices could still arrive before a sustainable bull market resumes.
Rekt Capital echoed the cautious tone, pointing to historical patterns in post-halving cycles. He argued that past Q4 peaks often give way to multi-month relief rallies formed from macro triangle bases, followed by renewed downside acceleration. That sequence, he said, has repeated across cycles and suggests more downside may be possible this time as well.
CME futures gaps as upside magnets
On the upside, traders are watching gaps in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures order book as potential targets if a relief move continues. Saturday’s retracement created a fresh CME gap, joining an earlier gap located near $84,000. Market participants frequently view such gaps as natural short-term price magnets that can attract buying during corrective rallies.
Bullish scenario and corporate demand question
Some traders remain constructive in the short term. Michaël van de Poppe forecast a brief correction before a push toward the CME gap and a possible extension above $75,000. Samson Mow, CEO of JAN3, highlighted two key questions for markets: whether the higher CME gap will be filled and whether corporate treasuries will add BTC at current prices. He suggested those developments could become clearer soon.
Risk reminder
This piece is for informational purposes and is not investment advice. Trading and investing carry risk; readers should conduct their own research and consider seeking professional guidance before making decisions.