XRP is trading around a key level as risk appetite edges up on reports of possible US–Iran talks. That surface bullishness, however, is being undermined by derivatives activity on Binance that signals caution.
Data from CryptoQuant highlights a clear asymmetry in the past 30 days: Binance long liquidations totaled about $39.8 million, versus roughly $19.7 million in short liquidations. In other words, buyers have been penalized at roughly twice the rate of sellers. That imbalance matters because it repeatedly extracts a disproportionate cost from optimistic positions, making sustained bullish conviction harder to maintain.
The behavioral picture is reinforced by funding and leverage metrics. The 30‑day cumulative funding rate for XRP is slightly negative, near -0.000007, and has been persistently below zero. When funding stays negative, traders are effectively paying to hold shorts rather than longs—an orientation that works against a durable recovery. Falling leverage usage further supports the view that the derivatives market has been systematically trimming bullish exposure.
That deleveraging can be constructive in a broader sense. Liquidation of crowded long bets reduces the mechanical risk of cascading selloffs, which over time can make the market more balanced and less prone to violent one‑way moves. But the reset is not complete: long liquidations still dominate, so positioning remains skewed. Only when leverage has been sufficiently reset and liquidity returns will the conditions be in place for a decisive directional move, and which catalyst arrives first will determine whether that move is higher or lower.
On the spot chart, XRP is consolidating near $1.38 after a prolonged decline from a late‑2025 peak. Price structure shows a series of lower highs and lower lows, with repeated rejections at the 50‑day (blue) and 100‑day (green) moving averages, both sloping down. The 200‑day moving average (red) remains well above current price, underscoring a macro corrective phase.
February’s capitulation—a sharp volume spike and a quick drop below $1.20—acted as a structural reset. Since then price has stabilized but lacks convincing momentum; trading volume has fallen, implying reduced participation rather than confident accumulation. XRP is compressing just below near‑term resistance and continues to fail at the descending 50‑day MA. Such compression often precedes an expansion, but the direction of that expansion is unclear.
A reclaim of the $1.50–$1.60 area would be required to mount a credible challenge to the downtrend. Until that zone is taken, XRP remains structurally weak and the current consolidation looks more like equilibrium than strength.
Image credits: featured image generated by ChatGPT; chart from TradingView.com.