Bitcoin’s climb back above $80,000 has lifted some market sentiment, but one analyst warns the timing could be risky. On X, Crypto Patel said Bitcoin has entered the same phase of the four‑year cycle that previously produced steep quarterly drawdowns.
The move north of $80,000 pushed CoinMarketCap’s fear and greed index into high neutral territory, helped by stronger ETF inflows in April and May. Even so, Bitcoin remains roughly 35.5% below its October 2025 peak. While May’s price action looks constructive, Patel notes mid‑term years in the cycle have historically coincided with major crashes.
Patel’s chart calls attention to three previous mid‑term year May peaks followed by large declines: 2014 (May peak, −76.04%), 2018 (May peak, −68.35%), and 2022 (May window, −70.06%). “Three for three,” he wrote, arguing this reflects cycle mechanics rather than coincidence. Extending that pattern into 2026, his projection implies a potential drop of about 66.54% from current levels.
Using the average drawdowns from those past mid‑term cycles, Patel suggested a possible bottom zone between $50,000 and $30,000.
The warning is notable because Bitcoin’s present technical backdrop isn’t clearly bearish. At the time of the commentary BTC traded near $81,530 and was approaching its 200‑day EMA around $83,000. Before the recent rebound, Bitcoin spent roughly eight weeks consolidating in a $60,000–$72,000 range, and many participants interpreted the recovery as confirmation that the low was in. Patel cautioned that such convictions can be a “relief rally” trap.
Other analysts have made similar points, saying the halving‑driven four‑year cycle could extend the bear phase into Q4 before a sustainable bottom forms.
Chart sources: Crypto Patel’s X post and TradingView. Featured image generated with DALL·E.