Onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant says Bitcoin may find its next major floor around $55,000 in the second half of 2026, with a subsequent multi-year accumulation phase before the next major cycle top.
The forecast centers on the market value to realized value (MVRV) Z-score, a valuation metric that compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization to its realized capitalization and normalizes that gap by historical volatility. Historically, CryptoQuant notes, every deep “iron bottom” in BTC’s cycles has coincided with the MVRV Z-score moving into negative territory — a signal the team says has not yet occurred in the current cycle.
CryptoQuant contributor Sunny Mom framed bottoming as a drawn-out process of exhaustion. While current readings show the market cooling relative to earlier cycle highs, the analysis argues the indicator has not reached the sub-zero levels that marked prior bear-market lows. Based on historical patterns, they set a target range of roughly $55,000–$60,000 for a final washout in late 2026.
The report highlights three onchain indicators that together imply downside remains possible before a durable trend change. The MVRV Z-score is the focal point because it provides a clear empirical reference for when valuation has slid into historically undervalued territory. The last time the Z-score dipped below zero was during Bitcoin’s 2022 bottom, and CryptoQuant sees the market potentially “rhyming” with that behavior around October–December 2026.
Looking beyond the bottom, CryptoQuant expects the market to enter a roughly two-year accumulation phase following a late-2026 trough. Combined with the scheduled Bitcoin halving in April 2028, the firm reasons that typical post-halving dynamics — where prior cycles peaked roughly 12–18 months after the halving — point to a likely blow-off top in the second half of 2029.
Other market observers have noted metrics that suggest the macro drawdown may be nearing its end; for example, earlier this year some rolling Z-score measures undercut previous stress-period floors and traders such as Michaël van de Poppe argued the drawdown was approaching its final stages. CryptoQuant’s view, however, is more cautious: additional downside to an iron bottom remains a plausible outcome until the MVRV Z-score confirms the undervalued signal.
In short, CryptoQuant’s scenario is: a possible trip to about $55K–$60K in late 2026 as MVRV crosses into negative territory, followed by roughly two years of accumulation and a potential cycle top in late 2029 after the 2028 halving.
This summary is informational and not investment advice. Market models and onchain indicators are imperfect and forward-looking statements carry uncertainty; always do your own research before making financial decisions.