An analyst using Elliott Wave analysis issued a Q2 outlook for XRP, noting that the Q1 forecast largely unfolded as expected despite some market frustration. The January base case anticipated an unfinished larger correction, range-bound action and the possibility of one final low before a more meaningful recovery. That scenario played out when XRP found support near $1.20 and subsequently rallied about 55% from those lows.
Two primary counts remain in play. In the more conservative bullish (white) scenario, wave 4 may have completed in March 2020 as part of a larger diagonal, setting up a potential impulsive third wave higher after a B-wave pullback. Key supports under this count are $0.98 and $0.73, with an ideal invalidation threshold not below $0.48. The more immediately bullish (yellow) count assumes wave 4 ended as a triangle in July 2024 and that the current advance is a developing fifth wave. That yellow view would be invalidated by a decisive break below $1.21, which is the 50% retracement that has held since February and would point toward a deeper correction.
The analyst currently leans toward the white count, citing similar pattern setups forming on Bitcoin and Ethereum. If the February low holds, a corrective B-wave bounce toward the $1.76–$2.86 resistance zone is possible during Q2. Any such rally, however, would likely be temporary and take a three-wave form, with the risk of a subsequent C-wave decline later in Q2 or into early Q3.
The update stresses the need for flexibility: wave 4 environments frequently produce sideways price action and waning market interest before meaningful turning points. How XRP reacts at the identified resistance and support levels over the coming weeks will clarify whether the structure favors continuation higher or further consolidation.
Macro conditions are also a factor. At the time of the report, CoinMarketCap showed Bitcoin down roughly 2.82% over 24 hours to $66,772.30, with the total crypto market cap off about 1.48%. The move appears linked to a broader macro sell-off: Bitcoin’s 24-hour correlations with the S&P 500 and gold were about 0.73 and 0.65, respectively, suggesting a rates-sensitive dynamic in traditional markets. If Bitcoin holds above the $64,972 swing low it may enter a consolidation phase; a break below that level would increase the chance of testing the ~$63,000 area. The next significant market catalyst is U.S. PCE inflation data due April 1.