A widely followed chart analyst says XRP is tracing a setup that closely mirrors the pattern that led into its 2017 blow-off rally, raising the possibility of a large upside move if the structure holds.
Chart Nerd points out that in 2017 XRP spent about three months cooling off before retesting its three-month 20-EMA, shortly before a roughly 25x surge to the peak. According to the analyst, 2025 is unfolding in a similar way: XRP broke out last year and has now completed a roughly three-month pullback toward that same long-term 20-EMA.
If the setup repeats even partially, Chart Nerd argues “we’re missing at least a 10x upside move,” which would still be much smaller than the 2017 run. The thesis does not ignore the 2021 lower high but is framed around long-standing resistance levels dating to 2017 monthly closes and years of price compression tied to the SEC lawsuit. Chart Nerd says the structure remains intact unless XRP closes below the three-month 20-EMA, currently near $1.20.
Other market participants are reading the recent volatility in a similar way. One trader noted XRP briefly pierced a key convergence zone to the downside but quickly recovered, calling the move a “fake breakout” designed to shake out sellers who expected a deeper slide. With that trap now behind the market, the trader expects the convergence to resolve soon and a potential rally if XRP pushes decisively above the zone.
Near-term price action has softened: XRP slid about 3.22% in the past 24 hours to $2.06, underperforming the broader market. Analysts point to several factors weighing on performance, including a CoinShares ETF withdrawal, repeated failures to clear the $2.25-$2.50 resistance band, and fresh whale inflows of roughly 110 million XRP to exchanges. Even so, XRP is up approximately 11.37% over the week. Traders are watching the $2.10 level—the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement—as the line that must hold to avoid a deeper pullback.
The narrative offers a bullish path if price structure and key support levels hold, but risk remains: a decisive close below the three-month 20-EMA would weaken the pattern and increase the odds of further downside.