Bitcoin rallied through April from March lows and briefly traded above $79,000, but some analysts warn this may be a mid-bear-market bounce before a deeper selloff.
Analyst Killa, who in June 2025 used a model to predict a cycle peak of $121,362 (about 3.9% below the actual $126,100 high reached in October 2025), has applied the same approach to estimate the cycle bottom. The model rests on the premise that as the market matures, each new Bitcoin cycle produces a smaller high-to-bottom multiple.
Killa’s five-cycle dataset shows the high-to-bottom multiple declining over time — 15.50x in Cycle 1, then 7.64x, 6.26x and 4.47x by Cycle 4 (Cycle 4 peaked near $69,800 and bottomed at $15,600). Extrapolating that rate of reduction produces a current-cycle multiple of about 3.25x. Dividing the $126,100 cycle high by 3.25 gives a base bottom estimate of roughly $38,800.
To account for the roughly 5% variance that affected his previous top call, Killa also offered two slightly higher scenarios at $40,740 and $42,680. With Bitcoin trading near $78,000 at the time of the forecast, a slide to $42,680 would be roughly a 45% decline, while $38,800 would imply about a 50% drop from those levels.
A separate analyst, CryptoBullet, concurs that a deeper, drawn-out correction is plausible. Using symmetry and an Elliott Wave count, CryptoBullet views the 2022–2025 rise as a five-wave advance that completed around the $126,000 peak, with the subsequent fall unfolding as a W‑X‑Y corrective pattern. That view points to a final Wave Y pushing below $50,000, toward about $45,000.
CryptoBullet also argues that three years of gains (from the November 2022 low to the 2025 peak) are unlikely to be fully unwound in under a year, suggesting the bear phase could persist into the second half of 2026 before a lasting bottom is established.