Bitcoin has bounced back above $69,000 after a steep pullback last week, but market analyst LavaXBT says a much larger drop could still be ahead. In a macro update on X, he laid out two possible paths and signaled a clear preference for a bearish outcome: an initial slide to about $45,000 followed by a deeper fall toward a potential final low near $29,000.
LavaXBT acknowledged that his Q1 2026 thesis did not play out as expected. He blamed the divergence on thin trading volumes and heightened geopolitical risk, notably tensions between the US and Iran, which he says have amplified fear and made price action more erratic. With liquidity low and conditions unpredictable, he plans to open short positions if Bitcoin rallies into resistance around $73,000, $78,000, or $80,000.
He warned that a move down to $29,000 would likely inflict far greater damage on altcoins, dragging many projects back to prices seen in the 2022 crash or lower. His advice: avoid buying altcoins indiscriminately and wait for Bitcoin to establish reliable support before accumulating other tokens. Patience and selectivity, he says, are key in this bear phase.
On the bullish side, LavaXBT said the outlook would improve if Bitcoin reclaims the swing high near $93,000. A sustained uptrend, in his view, would require a close above $120,000, after which he sees a possible macro target near $160,000—roughly 27 percent above the current all-time high around $126,000.
His commentary was based on an X post and accompanying TradingView charts.