Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said US-Israeli efforts against Iran are “not over yet,” while the market on whether Trump will announce an end to military operations against Iran by March 1 sits at 0% YES.
Netanyahu’s comment signals Israel is prepared for further action, making a diplomatic resolution less likely in the near term. Odds that Trump will endorse an Israeli ceasefire by April 30 also sit at 0% YES (https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-endorse-an-israeli-ceasefire-in-lebanon-by-april-30).
Trading volume in these markets is negligible, indicating near-total trader consensus that military operations will continue. With Netanyahu explicitly framing the campaign as ongoing, bets on a rapid resolution carry heavy risk.
His rhetoric highlights a gap between Israeli and U.S. priorities: Israel is focused on military objectives against Iran, while the U.S. has generally favored diplomatic channels. That divergence makes continued conflict more probable than a negotiated settlement.
Watch for new strikes on Iranian targets or major escalation, which would reinforce current market pricing. Trump’s next public statements on military operations could also shift these odds if they occur.
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