The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported March Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose 0.9% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year. Though slightly below analyst expectations, inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. A surge in energy prices tied to the Iran war drove the increase: the energy index rose nearly 11%, led by a 21.2% jump in gasoline.
Managing inflation is central to the Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment, which guides interest-rate decisions that significantly affect Bitcoin and other crypto assets. Lower rates tend to boost asset prices by expanding credit, while higher rates can restrain capital flows and asset prices.
Investors see no chance of an interest-rate cut at the April Federal Open Market Committee meeting, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. The odds the FOMC will keep rates on hold are 98.4%, with rate-cut probabilities only rising incrementally later in the year. FOMC members remain divided on cuts in 2026 amid inflationary pressures from the ongoing war, and further hikes have not been ruled out.
Bitcoin rose more than 1.5% on the CPI release, briefly touching $73,000. “The $73,000–$75,000 zone is our next major target,” said Matt Mena, senior crypto research strategist at 21Shares. “If BTC clears this, expect a brief period of sideways consolidation before a test of $80,000. Should the Clarity Act pass, the stage is set for $100,000 BTC and a $3 trillion–$3.2 trillion total crypto market cap by the end of Q2.”
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