Bitcoin (BTC) extended its bullish run into the Wall Street open on Friday, rising above $73,000. Traders are eyeing a move toward $80,000 by the end of April as technicals, onchain metrics and market sentiment all skew bullish.
Bitcoin breaks a bearish chart pattern
On Tuesday, Bitcoin invalidated what looked like a bear pennant on the daily chart, piercing the pennant’s upper trend line near $70,000 and jumping to a six-week high around $73,300. The breakout occurred with higher volume, suggesting stronger conviction.
The price reclaimed key supports: the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), the 20-day EMA and the 50-day EMA, at roughly $68,350, $69,520 and $70,580 respectively. That setup increases the odds of a bullish symmetrical-triangle reversal. A measured move above the triangle’s upper trend line points toward roughly $87,000, about 20% above current levels.
A bullish divergence in the relative strength index (RSI) indicates momentum has been building over the past two months, reinforcing upside potential. The next immediate resistance is the 100-day EMA near $75,400; a rejection there would weaken the breakout and raise the chance of a pullback.
Onchain data caps Bitcoin’s upside around $80,000
TradingView shows BTC consolidated for more than six weeks between $60,000 and $70,000, with repeated failures to hold above $72,000. Glassnode’s risk indicator identifies meaningful resistance between the true market mean near $78,000 and short-term holder (STH) cost basis around $80,000. Glassnode warns rallies into that zone are likely to encounter distribution pressure from recent buyers seeking breakeven exits.
Glassnode’s Entity-Adjusted UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) indicates Bitcoin has entered a relatively open zone between $72,000 and $82,000, where price may move more freely in the short term if momentum holds. However, upside may be capped around $82,000–$85,000 — a range where investors accumulated more than 1.3 million BTC. The cost-basis distribution heatmap also shows pronounced accumulation between $78,000 and $84,000, highlighting a logical short-term pathway toward that level but also a likely area of selling pressure.
Polymarket odds for $80,000 BTC in April rise
Prediction markets reflect a clearer bullish tilt. Polymarket prices now imply about a 26% chance BTC reaches $80,000 in April (up roughly 5 percentage points in 24 hours), while the $75,000 target carries stronger conviction at about 76%. Concurrently, the market’s assessed probability of BTC falling to $65,000 in April has declined, indicating traders are trimming downside expectations.
Taken together, the technical breakout, onchain cost-basis clusters and rising market odds offer three supporting signs that $80,000 is a reachable near-term target—though material resistance and distribution are likely between roughly $78,000 and $85,000, making that zone key to watch.
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