An analyst using Elliott Wave analysis published a Q2 outlook for XRP, saying the Q1 projection largely unfolded as expected despite market frustration. In January the base case anticipated an incomplete larger correction with range-bound action and the possibility of one final low before a meaningful recovery. That played out when XRP found support near $1.20 and then rallied roughly 55% from those levels.
Two primary paths remain. In the bullish white scenario, wave 4 may have bottomed in March 2020 as part of a larger diagonal, setting up a potential third wave higher after a B-wave dip. Key support levels in that case are $0.98, $0.73, and ideally not below $0.48. The more immediately bullish yellow count assumes wave 4 finished as a triangle in July 2024, with the current move forming a fifth wave; a decisive break below $1.21 (the 50% retracement held since February) would invalidate that path and favor a deeper correction.
The analyst currently favors the white count, noting similar patterns on Bitcoin and Ethereum. A corrective B-wave bounce toward the $1.76–$2.86 resistance zone is possible in Q2 if the February low holds, though any such rally would likely be temporary and three-wave in structure, followed by a potential C-wave decline later in Q2 or into early Q3.
The update emphasizes flexibility: wave 4 environments often produce sideways action and waning interest ahead of turning points. Upcoming price reactions at resistance and key levels will indicate whether the structure points to continuation or further consolidation.
At press time, CoinMarketCap shows BTC down 2.82% to $66,772.30 over 24 hours, with the total crypto market cap down about 1.48%. The move is tied to a macro sell-off: Bitcoin’s 24-hour correlations with the S&P 500 and Gold are roughly 0.73 and 0.65, respectively, suggesting a rates-sensitive move in traditional markets. If Bitcoin holds above the $64,972 swing low it may consolidate; a break below would risk testing the $63,000 area. The next key catalyst is U.S. PCE inflation data due April 1.