Key points:
– Bitcoin’s recovery is expected to face selling near $69,000, but if bulls prevail a rally to $74,508 is possible.
– Most major altcoins remain below resistance, indicating bears continue to exert pressure.
Bitcoin (BTC) rose above $68,000 but bulls are struggling to hold higher levels. Sellers are likely to press for a negative monthly close in March, which would mark six consecutive months of losses for the first time since 2018. Analysts are growing bearish in the near term. Willy Woo suggested on X that BTC may bottom between $46,000 and $54,000 based on various on-chain models.
The deeper the drawdown from the all-time high, the longer a full recovery typically takes. Ecoinometrics’ model notes that if BTC holds the $60,000 low, a full recovery from the October 2025 peak of $126,000 could occur in roughly 300 days. About 175 days have passed since that peak, leaving roughly 125 days for recovery. If BTC falls to $40,000–$45,000, recovery could stretch into Q2 2027, since each additional 10% drawdown adds about 80 days to recovery time.
Will buyers overcome resistance in BTC and major altcoins? Below are chart-based outlooks for the top markets.
S&P 500 Index (SPX)
The SPX turned down from the 20-day exponential moving average (20-day EMA — 6,620), showing bears remain in control. Sellers will try to push the index to 6,147, a level likely to attract buyers. A bounce from 6,147 may face resistance at the 20-day EMA; a sharp rejection there could see a renewed effort to breach 6,147 and then test 5,943. Conversely, a close above the 20-day EMA would signal waning bearish control and could send the index toward the 50-day simple moving average (50-day SMA — 6,803).
US Dollar Index (DXY)
DXY bounced off its 20-day EMA (99.40), indicating positive momentum. Buyers will attempt to hold above the 100.54 resistance; success could propel DXY toward 102 and then 103.54. Bears must defend 100.54 and push the price below the 20-day EMA to weaken the uptrend; failure could see a drop to the 50-day SMA (98.25).
Bitcoin price outlook
BTC briefly closed below the ascending triangle’s support line but the dip was not sustained. Bulls have pushed price back above that support and are trying to breach the moving averages. If they succeed, the BTC/USDT pair could rally to the $74,508–$76,000 resistance zone. For bears to regain control, they must defend the moving averages and drive BTC below $65,000, which would open the path to $62,500–$60,000.
Ether price outlook
Ether (ETH) closed below the 50-day SMA ($2,040) but held $1,916 support. Bulls are attempting to reclaim the moving averages; a successful move could raise the odds of a rally to $2,400, with $2,600 as the next target if that level is cleared. The bullish view would be negated if ETH breaks below $1,916, which could lead to $1,750.
BNB price outlook
BNB remains below the moving averages but has not fallen to $570 support. Bulls are trying to spark a recovery but will likely face resistance at the moving averages; a rejection there raises the risk of a decline to $570. A close above the moving averages suggests consolidation within $570–$687; a decisive break above $687 would hand control back to buyers.
XRP price outlook
XRP remains under its moving averages, with downsloping averages and an RSI in negative territory favoring bears. Buyers will aim to defend $1.27; if that support fails, XRP could drop to $1.11. Conversely, a sharp move above the moving averages would signal sellers drying up and could push the pair toward $1.61.
Solana price outlook
SOL is range-bound between $76 and $95, reflecting supply-demand balance. Flat moving averages and an RSI just below midpoint give no clear edge. Buyers must lift SOL above $95 to target $117. A break and close below $76 would tilt advantage to bears and could see a retest of the Feb. 6 low at $67.
Dogecoin price outlook
DOGE has held above $0.09 but lacks a strong rebound. Bears are selling relief rallies to the moving averages; another rejection increases the risk of a break below $0.09 and a decline toward $0.08. If DOGE breaks above the moving averages, bulls may drive it to $0.11 and then $0.12.
Cardano price outlook
ADA closed below $0.25, signaling bearish control. Buyers aim to reclaim $0.25, but sellers appear to be trying to flip it into resistance. If $0.25 remains resistance, ADA could fall to the Feb. 6 low of $0.22. Bulls need a quick push above the moving averages to trap bears and possibly reach the downtrend line; sellers are expected to defend that line aggressively.
Hyperliquid price outlook
HYPE is attempting to stay above the 20-day EMA ($37.86), but the recovery lacks conviction. A dip below the 20-day EMA and $36.77 would suggest bulls have retreated and could pull HYPE toward the 50-day SMA ($33.73), likely a strong support. If HYPE rebounds, it should face resistance at $41.59 and $44; clearing $44 would signal a resumption of the up move toward $50.
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