Veteran trader Peter Brandt said he does not expect Bitcoin to revisit its October all-time high of $126,100 in 2026, and suggested a new peak might not arrive until around the second quarter of 2027 — a projection he called speculative. Brandt told Cointelegraph that it could take more than a year before prices return to those levels.
Prediction markets show similar caution: Polymarket traders place roughly a 15% probability on Bitcoin reclaiming $120,000 in 2026.
Market observers are divided on next year’s outlook. Supporters of the four-year cycle theory anticipate a weaker 2026, while others argue that rising institutional demand could upset historical patterns and lift prices.
At the time of publication, CoinMarketCap data showed Bitcoin trading near $66,329, down about 3.5% over the past week and roughly 47% below October’s peak. The token hit a yearly low of $60,000 on Feb. 6; Brandt said prices could retest that area or fall “slightly lower” than levels seen in September or October. If the low holds, he added, it would likely mark the bottom of the bear cycle and the start of a new bull market.
Brandt reiterated his core view that Bitcoin is a store of wealth, and that any additional utility layered on top of it could influence its price. He said he is neutral to bearish on other cryptocurrencies.
From a liquidity standpoint, analyst Willy Woo tweeted that Bitcoin is about one-third of the way through its current bear market. SkyBridge founder Anthony Scaramucci also described Bitcoin as being in the bear phase of the four-year cycle, noting that belief in such cycles can become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Recent market flows have shown weakness: spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $296.18 million for the week ending Friday, ending a four-week inflow streak. Sentiment measures reflect investor caution amid geopolitical uncertainty — the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has been in “extreme fear” since March 20, registering a score of 8.
Not everyone expects a down year. In January, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee said he still anticipates Bitcoin will set a new all-time high in 2026, while cautioning investors to prepare for the possibility of a painful drawdown across crypto and equity markets.
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