Bitcoin (BTC) buyers made a tepid comeback on Monday, pushing BTC to an intraday high near $67,860. Analysts, however, say Bitcoin remains in a bear market, with multiple metrics pointing to a potential bottom below $50,000.
Key takeaways:
– $70,000 has flipped to resistance, opening the door for a deeper correction.
– Short-term holder realized price bands have moved lower, suggesting a potential bottom around $46,000.
– Historical retracement levels and a bear-flag breakdown indicate a final low near $39,000–$41,000 this cycle.
Bitcoin’s “path of least resistance” is downward
TradingView data showed BTC trading around $67,750, with $69,000–$70,000 acting as new resistance. Technical Crypto Analyst noted that losing $68,000–$69,000 support “confirms short-term bearish momentum,” adding: “Unless price quickly reclaims $69K–$70K, the path of least resistance remains downward toward the $65K demand zone.”
MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe called Monday’s bounce “great” but unconfirmed, saying a breakout above $71,000 would offer confirmation. He also flagged the possibility of a “classic little sweep to $65K just before the push upwards,” which could precede renewed momentum.
Analyst Kyle Chassé highlighted sentiment and order-book dynamics: the Fear & Greed index remains in “extreme fear” and books show more shorts than longs, biasing the market toward further downside.
Where will the Bitcoin price bottom?
Bitcoin’s 46% drawdown from its $126,000 all-time high has pushed the cost basis of short-term holders (STH; held <155 days) down from $113,500 to $83,200. Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, noted this shift means the pricing for a potential bottom has moved lower; the lower line of the STH realized price bands has also moved down, which could imply a bottom around $50,000 or slightly below. In 2022, BTC bottomed just below the lower STH realized-price band.
Willy Woo said the bear-market bottom could lie between Bitcoin’s realized price (about $54,000) and the Cumulative Value-Days Destroyed (CVDD), currently near $45,500. “Old school onchain models suggest a BTC bottom between $46K–54K,” he wrote. CVDD tracks long-term holders’ selling relative to market age, creating a rising floor during bear phases.
Crypto Jelle observed that historical bear-market lows often fall between the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement levels — roughly $57,600 and $39,000, respectively. Cointelegraph has reported that current “last stages” bear-market analysis, including a bear-flag breakdown, points to possible lows around $41,000.
Collectively, on-chain models (realized price, CVDD, STH bands), retracement analysis, sentiment indicators, and price-structure studies converge on a range from the mid-$40,000s down to about $39,000–$41,000 as plausible final lows for this cycle, while some models put a floor nearer $50,000.
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph's Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research before making any decisions. Cointelegraph makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information presented, including forward-looking statements, and will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on this content.