Key takeaways:
– Bearish sentiment is rising as professional Bitcoin options traders lose confidence the $66,000 level will hold.
– David Sacks’s exit as the crypto and AI czar and the absence of a clear US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve plan added to investor doubts.
Bitcoin (BTC) dropped to $65,530 on Friday, an 8% fall from Thursday’s $71,300, wiping out more than $210 million in leveraged bullish futures and rendering most call options worthless as the $18.6 billion monthly options expiry passed. Market pricing now implies a roughly 53% chance Bitcoin will trade below $66,000 by April 24.
On Deribit, the April 24 Bitcoin $66,000 put was trading at 0.0566 BTC (about $3,730). The elevated implied probability of a sub-$66K BTC reflects a risk-off shift driven by increased geopolitical and domestic uncertainty, including the Israel–Iran tensions and U.S. policy questions.
US inflation concerns and stalled crypto policy
Rising oil and the prospect of up to $200 billion in additional U.S. military spending pushed investors to demand higher yields on government bonds and pressured equities: West Texas Intermediate hit $100, while 5-year Treasury yields climbed to 4.07% from 3.72% three weeks earlier, and the S&P 500 slid to levels not seen since September 2025.
Inflation fears and weaker corporate outlooks don’t fully explain Bitcoin’s roughly 20% underperformance versus the S&P 500 in 2026. Political and policy factors likely contributed, notably uncertainty around a potential U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve. David Sacks has stepped down from his role as the Trump administration’s crypto and AI czar—though he remains an advisor to the President’s Council on Science & Technology—removing a figure whose comments had previously boosted expectations that the U.S. could acquire Bitcoin by budget-neutral means.
Options skew and rising fear
The 30-day options delta skew for Bitcoin jumped to about 15%, signaling puts trade at a significant premium versus calls. In calmer markets this metric typically sits between –6% and +6%. The current level points to a lack of conviction among large traders that $66,000 is a secure floor; fear has dominated the options market since mid-January.
Monthly expiry favored bears
Friday’s monthly options expiry at an average settlement near $68,610 penalized neutral-to-bullish strategies: roughly 97% of call options expired worthless. Put open interest at $69,000 and above exceeded $2 billion, giving bears the upper hand. Part of the sell-off reflected traders’ unwillingness to hold long Bitcoin exposure into the weekend amid heightened event risk.
Social sentiment and potential reversals
Crypto commentator WhalePanda suggested the market sell-off anticipated a potential post-close escalation by President Trump; such headlines can drive short-term panic. That said, options-implied odds are sensitive to recent news and can reverse quickly if no major events occur over the weekend or if diplomatic developments—such as a credible Iranian counter-proposal to U.S. terms—reduce geopolitical risk.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.