ARK Invest announced it will start using price signals from Kalshi’s prediction markets to inform its investment research and decision-making, signaling broader institutional interest in market-based forecasts beyond retail trading.
According to Kalshi, ARK will incorporate prediction market prices to track real-time expectations and supplement its other market research. The firm also plans to monitor secondary indicators such as trading volume, regulatory outcomes and technological milestones, and to apply the data in risk management and hedging programs.
ARK founder and CEO Cathie Wood framed the move as a logical advance for financial research, saying bringing prediction markets into institutional workflows enhances insight. ARK research director Nick Grous added that these markets provide particularly clear measures of risk for important economic and company-specific events.
Prediction markets attracted attention last year as a crypto-related use case and have routinely exceeded $10 billion in monthly trading volume. That activity, combined with academic and policy interest, has helped push institutions to consider their informational value.
On social media, Wood noted ARK has worked with Kalshi to create markets on subjects the firm follows, including macroeconomic releases and scientific milestones. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said several of those markets are already live, covering items such as nonfarm payrolls, deficit-to-GDP outcomes and specific business KPIs.
Researchers at the U.S. Federal Reserve have recommended incorporating Kalshi data into policy processes, arguing prediction markets can capture evolving macroeconomic expectations more quickly and richly than some conventional tools. The Fed team described Kalshi markets as a high-frequency, continuously updated benchmark that provides a distributional read useful to both researchers and policymakers.
Academic studies have likewise used prediction-market information. For example, Cornell researchers analyzed trader reactions on Polymarket to political events, including presidential debates and the 2024 assassination attempt on Donald Trump, to study market responses in real time.
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