Bitcoin’s (BTC) failure to post a weekly close above the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) on Sunday has put the market at risk of another downward leg in the coming weeks or months.
Key takeaways:
– Bitcoin shows “structural weakness” after missing a weekly close above a key trend line.
– Analysts say the next breakdown could clear the path for another sell-off toward $46,000.
– The $47,000 area acts as a deep structural support for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin price weakness sparks sub-$50,000 targets
TradingView data showed BTC/USD around $71,190, roughly 6% above an intraday low of $67,300. The pair failed to produce a weekly close above the 200-week EMA, currently near $68,300, suggesting last week’s rally to $76,000 may have been a bull trap.
There is evidence of profit-taking each time Bitcoin reaches key accumulation levels. Many traders warned that any renewed downside could accelerate quickly.
“$BTC broke down from the rising wedge over the weekend,” analyst Jelle said, adding: “Consolidate here for a day or two, and those untapped lows look ripe for the taking.” He was referring to the area between the local low of $65,500 and the range low of $59,930 reached on Feb. 6.
“BTC has lost the EMA50 once again, and the global crisis feels more insecure today than it did 2 weeks ago,” analyst Stockmoney Lizards said, adding that technical weakness makes revisiting the sub-$60K area possible.
“Bitcoin is getting close to taking that next leg lower into the mid-$40Ks,” analyst Michael J. Kramer said, citing a measured target from a bear-flag pattern around $46,600.
Prediction-market traders also price in downside: markets imply a 70% chance Bitcoin drops below $55,000 in 2026 and place the odds of a drop below $45,000 at about 46%.
“Deep structural” support for BTC is at $47,000
Bitcoin is trading near the 200-week EMA at $68,300, which coincides with the realized price of the largest holder cohort (100–1,000 BTC), according to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr.
“As long as the price holds above $68K, the largest cohort remains near its cost basis and maintains a more resilient position,” Adler Jr. said. “A move below this level would signal deteriorating structure and increase the likelihood of a more nervous reaction from large holders.”
The realized price of the 10–100 BTC holder cohort sits significantly lower, around $46,700, forming a “deep structural threshold that would become meaningful only in the event of a full-scale deterioration in market regime,” the analyst added.
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