Bitcoin (BTC) spot volumes on Binance have slid to their weakest level since September 2023, suggesting the recent intraday price rise lacks strong spot-market backing. Monday’s rally above $71,700 appears primarily driven by headlines and futures-market liquidations rather than fresh buying demand.
Binance volumes and exchange flows signal a demand gap for BTC
Crypto analyst Darkfost noted March was on track to record roughly $52 billion in Binance spot volume—the lowest since Q3 2023 and well below the $88 billion seen in September 2023—aligning activity with prior bear-market conditions and reduced participation.
Exchange flow data mirrors the slowdown. Analyst Arab Chain reported seven-day cumulative flows of $6.38 billion on Binance and $5.14 billion on Coinbase, with Binance inflows at their lowest since 2024, indicating reduced deposit activity. Lower inflows can also reflect reduced supply to sell, as fewer coins are moved onto exchanges, while Coinbase’s steadier flows point to more consistent long-term investor participation.
Large-holder activity also stands out. Market analyst Gaah flagged a record surge in whale inflow momentum—the rate of change in large transfers to exchanges—registering 74.3, a peak not seen in the past 11 years (the last higher reading was 124.6 in 2015). This elevated inflow velocity signals aggressive capital rotation and hedging, increasing Bitcoin’s sensitivity to short-term volatility in the coming weeks.
Bitcoin liquidation activity shows traders lack conviction
The BTC spike followed reports that President Trump deferred planned U.S. strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure for five days—a claim Iran later denied—acting as an external catalyst. BTC reached a weekly high of $71,789 on Binance during the U.S. session, but data indicates the move coincided with falling leverage: aggregated open interest dropped by about 9,700 BTC, a roughly 4% decline over 13 hours.
Open interest measures active futures contracts; a decline during a price advance suggests positions were closed rather than new exposure being added. Such moves often occur when short contracts are forced out, reducing total exposure while pushing prices higher. Binance recorded over $44 million in short liquidations within one hour—the largest one-hour short squeeze since $53 million of long liquidations on Feb. 6.
The Coinbase premium remained negative during the rally, indicating limited spot demand from U.S. participants. Together, falling open interest, high liquidations and weak premiums imply the uptick was driven by position closures and forced liquidations rather than significant new capital entering the spot market, with most activity concentrated around $71,000–$72,000.
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