Bitcoin (BTC) begins the week under renewed macro pressure as gold plunges and traders await a move toward $50,000.
– BTC closed the week beneath a key trend line, leaving bulls likely to hope for only an early-week bounce.
– Price action increasingly resembles January’s bear-flag breakdown, with measured targets pointing to new multiyear lows.
– Gold has entered a technical bear market and oil is back above $100 amid Iran-related tensions.
– Traders are starting to price potential Fed rate hikes into 2026, though historical patterns could still offer relief for risk assets.
– Bitcoin long-term holders have been selling at a loss through March.
Bitcoin weekly close loses 200-week trend line
After a rocky weekend, Bitcoin struggled to reclaim support as traditional markets reopened. TradingView data showed BTC trading near $67,400 into the weekly close and losing the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), which had been seen as key support (the 200-week EMA sat near $68,300).
Trader CrypNuevo flagged geopolitics as the overriding theme and suggested the market could remain rangebound for weeks. He warned that conflict escalation could trigger a revisit to range lows and noted a sub-$60,000 swing low from early February as reference. On lower time frames he favored a potential rotation to $65,000 next week, while cautioning that acceptance above $71,000 would invalidate that view.
Liquidations remained elevated into Monday, with over $400 million erased in 24 hours, according to CoinGlass. With liquidity stacked above price, Castillo Trading highlighted upside risk from a potential short squeeze but allowed for some downside below $67,200.
CryptoQuant’s XWIN Research Japan cautioned that weekend liquidity declines—when institutional and ETF-driven spot demand typically pauses—amplify price sensitivity and can produce outsized moves from relatively small sell orders. It urged not to read weekend volatility as definitive trend signals.
Traders eye January bear-flag breakdown repeat
Many traders worry Bitcoin is replaying a January-style bear flag: a macro downtrend interrupted by a relief rally that lacks volume and then breaks lower to continue the downtrend. Observers noted BTC compressing in a rising wedge between roughly $66K support and $76K resistance, with a breakout from that range set to decide the next major move.
Roman and others described the current price structure as mirroring the previous bear-flag breakdown and retest, emphasizing low volume on upward moves. Jelle suggested price may have already broken support and flagged “untapped lows” as vulnerable.
Material Indicators’ cofounder Keith Alan indicated a measured move from another bear-flag breakdown could target sub-$50,000 levels.
Gold hits bear market on Iran oil woes
Middle East tensions and an energy shock have weighed on both risk assets and traditional safe havens. Asian equities fell on the session, while gold and silver saw heavy selling; Bitcoin also dropped to two-week lows into the weekly close.
XAU/USD fell over 20% from its all-time high and hit local lows near $4,099 per ounce—levels unseen since November 2025—officially entering bear-market territory. The Kobeissi Letter suggested the moves could reflect liquidation of a large market participant and noted rising US 10-year yields were pressuring assets.
Oil continued to trade around and above $100 per barrel as uncertainty over Strait of Hormuz flows persisted. Mosaic Asset Company highlighted the inflation risk from higher oil, noting a $10 per-barrel rise can lift headline inflation by roughly 0.20% or more—a factor that could influence Fed policy and economic readings ahead.
Risk-asset hope remains despite hawkish Fed
This week’s calendar is light on headline inflation prints; attention turns to jobless claims and S&P Flash PMI data. Crypto has shown sensitivity to PMI releases recently, and US manufacturing data has begun to recover.
The Fed’s tone remained cautious after its most recent meeting: while rates were left unchanged, Chair Jerome Powell stressed that easing would depend on measurable progress on inflation. Market pricing has moved to push out near-term cuts and even open the possibility of later hikes, with some traders noting that implied probabilities of further tightening have shifted.
Despite the hawkish stance, some see potential support for stocks—and by extension crypto—from historical patterns around major geopolitical events. Mosaic and Kobeissi pointed to market breadth, sentiment, and the large March options expiry (triple witching) that released capital as possible catalysts for volatile but potentially rallying moves in risk assets.
Bitcoin old hands sell at a loss
Long-term Bitcoin holders (LTHs) have shown capitulation signals. CryptoQuant research reported the LTH Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) fell to 0.64 on March 11, meaning those coins were sold at an average 36% loss versus their cost basis—one of the most extreme LTH capitulation readings in recent months. A SOPR this far below 1.0 suggests patient holders were being shaken out, signaling genuine fear.
The 30-day moving average of LTH-SOPR remains below 1, even as large amounts of BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges, hinting at concurrent distribution and accumulation—“a classic phase transition setup,” per the research.
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