XRP posted its steepest weekly decline since October 2025, reviving comparisons to the roughly 50% crash experienced in 2022.
Key takeaways:
– A break below $1.48 would increase downside risk as whale-level selling continues.
– Staying inside the $1.43–$1.48 band would keep a bullish recovery scenario alive.
New buyers sit underwater
As of Monday, XRP was trading near $1.60, off more than 20% on the week and below the average cost basis for coins acquired over the past year. The aggregated realized price — the mean on-chain cost basis of XRP in circulation — is about $1.48, which means many recent buyers are now holding positions at a loss.
A clear drop beneath $1.48 would push the typical holder further underwater, a dynamic that echoes the 2022 bear run that ultimately saw prices slump toward roughly $0.30. On-chain metrics from CryptoQuant show the 90-day whale flow for XRP remains net negative, signaling distribution from large holders rather than accumulation. When new entrants are already losing money, persistent whale selling can increase overhead supply and make rebounds more difficult.
Stablecoin outflows weigh on buying power
Stablecoin balances on exchanges turned sharply lower in late 2025, with 30-day net outflows reaching around $9.6 billion. Although outflows moderated in January, net flows remained negative at about $4 billion, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost. Reduced stablecoin inventories on exchanges typically translate into less dry powder for buyers, limiting the potential for large buy-side moves that could drive XRP above its realized price.
Technical picture and the risk of a deeper decline
Technically, XRP has been trading just above its 100-2W exponential moving average (100-2W EMA) near $1.43 — close to the aggregated realized price of $1.48. The token could dip back into the $1.43–$1.48 support zone in February; the two-week relative strength index (RSI) sits around 38, a level that has often preceded consolidations before any stronger recovery.
If the 100-2W EMA holds, XRP may spend several weeks finding a base and could attempt a more decisive recovery in late Q1 or Q2 2026. By contrast, a decisive break below the 100-2W EMA would undermine that recovery path and could push the token toward its 200-2W EMA near $1 as early as March — roughly a 36% fall from current levels and a breakdown pattern reminiscent of 2022’s support losses.
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