Kalshi and Polymarket have begun preliminary discussions with potential investors about fundraising rounds that could value each company near $20 billion, according to a Wall Street Journal report. People familiar with the talks say the conversations are early and may not result in deals amid rising regulatory and political scrutiny of prediction markets.
Kalshi, a U.S.-based platform founded in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, offers markets on sports, politics, economic events and pop culture. After a December financing that raised $1 billion from investors including Paradigm and Sequoia Capital, Kalshi’s valuation was about $11 billion. The company, which secured Commodity Futures Trading Commission approval in 2020 to become the first regulated exchange for event-based contracts, has recently exceeded a $1 billion annualized revenue run rate, with some estimates approaching $1.5 billion.
Polymarket, launched in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, currently restricts access for U.S. users but plans to introduce a regulated domestic version this year. In October it was valued around $9 billion after Intercontinental Exchange, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, agreed to invest up to $2 billion.
Both platforms have drawn criticism for hosting markets tied to geopolitical events — including wagers on a potential U.S. strike on Iran and bets related to Iran’s supreme leader — prompting calls for tighter oversight. Lawmakers, led by Representatives Blake Moore and Salud Carbajal, have proposed legislation to limit prediction markets from offering contracts on certain topics such as war and sports.
Despite the scrutiny, Kalshi and Polymarket are active in user growth efforts, increasing social-media advertising and running campus outreach programs aimed at college communities. The WSJ cautions the talks are preliminary and that valuations that large would represent a marked increase from late‑2023 levels, when each firm was worth roughly half the $20 billion target.