XRP has entered a delicate phase, with a large portion of holders now sitting in the red and debate growing over whether the token is approaching capitulation or gearing up for the next market cycle.
On-chain data from Glassnode indicates roughly 36.8 billion XRP are held at a loss, amounting to about $50.8 billion in unrealized losses at current prices. The token recently slipped below its aggregate holder cost basis, a key psychological level that can amplify selling pressure when breached.
Profitability metrics mirror the deterioration: the network’s Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), measured with a seven-day exponential moving average, has fallen from 1.16 in July 2025 to roughly 0.96. That shift signals more coins are being moved at losses than at gains, pushing on-chain profitability into negative territory.
Market observers like EGRAG note two common endgame patterns in prior cycles: price-based capitulation, a sharp sell-off that purges weak hands, or time-based capitulation, an extended period of sideways trading that slowly drains momentum before recovery.
Despite the weakness, institutional engagement remains. The largest U.S. XRP exchange-traded fund now anchors total XRP ETF assets above $1 billion, and Ripple has strengthened its institutional plumbing—Ripple Prime has joined the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) clearing system.
Longer-term forecasts for XRP’s payment use case remain ambitious, with some estimates suggesting cross-border volumes on XRP infrastructure could reach $10 trillion by 2030. For now, market focus is squarely on whether existing unrealized losses will deepen into broad capitulation or represent the last phase of consolidation ahead of the next expansion.