by Estefano Gomez · Just now ago
Trump called Iran “animals” and said they are losing, pushing the chance of a ceasefire by April 7 down to 1.1% YES, from 2% a day earlier.
With four days remaining, the April 7 market shows little expectation of a swift diplomatic solution. Traders reacted to Trump’s aggressive rhetoric and warnings of intensified strikes on Iranian infrastructure by cutting odds for the near-term ceasefire. The April 15 market is at 6.5% YES, down from 8% yesterday, reflecting reduced optimism that talks will advance soon.
Later-dated markets also moved lower, signaling an expectation of a prolonged standoff. The April 30 market is 17.5% YES, down from 24% a day ago. The May 31 market sits at 36.5% YES, indicating some hope for eventual negotiations but less confidence than before.
Ceasefire markets saw $431,402 in USDC traded over the past 24 hours, with April 30 drawing the most liquidity. It would take $19,925 to shift that market’s odds by 5 points, showing robust depth; the largest recent change was a 2-point increase, underscoring trader skepticism.
Trump’s remarks alone haven’t produced large market moves. A YES share for April 7 pays $1 if a ceasefire occurs, but participants seem cautious about a quick de-escalation absent a major shift on the ground or effective mediation. A ceasefire is seen as more likely if third-party mediators such as Oman or Qatar intervene, scheduled negotiations occur, or influential figures change course.
Markets Impacted
– US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
– US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
– US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
– US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
– US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
– US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy.
