Bitcoin struggled to stave off another decline at Monday’s Wall Street open as a growing number of traders cast doubt on whether a sustained bull market will resume.
Overview
– Several market commentators now question if the bull cycle will come back.
– BTC has logged four consecutive monthly red candles for only the third time in its history.
– Some analysts argue a correction in gold could eventually redirect flows back into crypto.
Price action and sentiment
BTC/USD bounced roughly 2% from the daily open on TradingView after touching fresh 16-month lows of $74,532 on Bitstamp. That area coincides with an increase in bearish forecasts, with $74,000 and below frequently cited as downside targets.
In its Asia Color market update, QCP Capital warned the coming sessions are critical: “A sustained close below the 74k support level would increase the risk of a deeper drawdown, potentially drawing the broader crypto complex back toward its 2024 trading range.” The firm highlighted that holding above this level will be important to prevent a larger decline.
Market participants showed little confidence in a rapid reversal. Trader Jelle pointed to a “weekly lower low on closing basis” and declared the uptrend over, suggesting a recovery could take time. Rekt Capital similarly indicated Bitcoin is unlikely to revisit the $126,200 all-time high from October 2025, noting, “Looks like that was the top.” Monitoring service CoinGlass recorded BTC/USD’s fourth straight month of negative returns at the January close, a streak previously seen only during the 2014 and 2018 bear markets.
Gold, margins, and potential spillover
After months of diverging moves, Bitcoin and gold briefly moved in parallel on the day. XAU/USD, which had recently broken down from higher levels, tried to stabilize near $4,700 per ounce. QCP tied the precious-metals weakness to the announcement of Kevin Warsh as the next U.S. Federal Reserve chair, saying that news dampened demand for non-yielding assets like gold and silver. Higher margin requirements imposed by futures exchanges also forced an accelerated unwinding of leveraged positions in precious metals.
That environment leaves a narrow opening for bullish scenarios in crypto. Trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe pointed to historical patterns where gold peaks have been followed by delayed Bitcoin highs, with Ether often rallying once Bitcoin regains strength. He argued that new all-time highs for gold and silver are unlikely in 2026, and that a correction in precious metals could ultimately free capital to flow back into digital assets.
Risk and disclosure
This article is informational and not investment advice. Trading and investing involve risk; readers should perform their own research and consider their personal circumstances. While efforts are made to provide accurate information, no guarantee is given regarding completeness or reliability, and forward-looking statements are subject to change.