John Oliver, host of HBO’s Last Week Tonight, took aim at prediction-market platforms in the show’s latest deep dive.
On Sunday, Oliver examined some of the trivial event contracts offered by sites such as Kalshi and Polymarket — from wagers on whether members of the Trump administration would use specific words in public remarks to bets tied to companies’ partnerships with news outlets. He also raised questions about Donald Trump Jr.’s ties to both platforms, noting his advisory role, and criticized the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission under Chair Michael Selig for seeming not to block event contracts on terrorism, assassination and war.
Oliver argued that it’s “incredibly easy for individuals to manipulate the outcomes,” pointing to an incident in which Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong listed crypto-related words during a third-quarter 2025 earnings call, enabling many Kalshi and Polymarket users to win bets. Echoing Armstrong, Oliver joked, “I will never do anything because someone online placed a bet on it. So you can be confident that if I ever say Bitcoin, Ethereum, blockchain, staking and Web3, it won’t be because I’m trying to move markets — it will be because I’m having a stroke.”
User activity and trading volume on prediction markets have surged in recent months and are projected to reach $1 trillion by 2030. Still, the platforms’ controversial contracts and uncertain legal standing across U.S. states have drawn scrutiny. Gaming regulators in several states have sued Kalshi and other companies over alleged illegal sports betting. Coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal and others have predicted the dispute could ultimately reach the U.S. Supreme Court.
Financial giants looking to expand into prediction markets?
Beyond announced partnerships with media companies such as CNN, CNBC, Fox News and Dow Jones, traditional financial firms have signaled interest in prediction markets. Charles Schwab CEO Rick Wurster said the company would “take a hard look at” prediction markets on an investor call, and Citadel Securities president Jim Esposito said the firm is “absolutely keeping an eye on developments” as it considers potential moves into the space.
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