A concentrated set of crypto wallets made roughly $1.2 million by wagering on a Polymarket contract tied to an on‑chain probe of DeFi firm Axiom, raising fresh concerns that prediction markets can reward those with advance knowledge of market‑moving disclosures. Dune analytics show the eight top‑earning wallets on the contract collectively pulled in about $1.2 million, while more than 50 other wallets lost roughly $1.23 million in total; two of those losers accounted for about $366,000 of the downside.
On‑chain researcher Defioasis flagged that eight of the ten most profitable addresses fit patterns consistent with insider activity: several traded only this single market and three earned more than $100,000 apiece. Those bets lined up with the release of a long‑awaited investigation by analyst ZachXBT, which alleges that Axiom employee Broox Bauer and others engaged in insider trading beginning in early 2025. Axiom said it was shocked and disappointed, and removed access to the tools named in the report.
The episode adds to growing scrutiny of prediction markets. In January, a Polymarket account placed a highly profitable wager on the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro just hours before U.S. forces captured him, netting about $400,000 and sparking questions about whether advance information was being used. U.S. lawmakers have since proposed limits on political prediction market trading by government officials.
Polymarket also faces regulatory pressure over gambling concerns: Hungary, Portugal and Ukraine blocked the platform in January, citing unlawful gambling activity, and France, Belgium, Poland, Singapore and Switzerland have restricted access at times.
The case highlights a core tension: decentralized prediction markets can surface valuable information, but they also create opportunities for insiders or privileged actors to profit from nonpublic intelligence, prompting calls for stronger oversight and platform controls.