The ongoing US–Iran conflict is keeping Bitcoin, Ethereum and Dogecoin prices choppy, even as risk appetite returns and speculative positions increase. Recent market moves show both renewed bullish conviction and heightened fragility should the geopolitical backdrop shift.
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe said the conflict is a persistent volatility catalyst and warned that these tokens are unlikely to enjoy a broad, sustained rally while the war remains the dominant consensus. He added that a sufficiently weak U.S. economy could push the Federal Reserve back toward easing policy, which would be supportive for risk assets, including crypto.
Despite the uncertainty, the majors have shown resilience. Bitcoin climbed toward the mid‑70,000s as traders priced in a possible cessation of hostilities after a fragile two‑week ceasefire and comments from President Donald Trump about renewed talks—developments that helped fuel short‑term bullishness.
Risk‑on flows are visible on the data: on‑chain analytics firm Santiment reported BTC and ETH activity levels at their strongest since early February, and margin/leveraged exposure has surged. Bitcoin open interest rose roughly 59% over seven weeks, while Ethereum’s open interest increased about 45% in the same span. Rising open interest with rising prices signals growing trader conviction but also greater systemic risk, since concentrated leveraged positions can unwind suddenly and amplify volatility.
Not all analysts are convinced a durable bottom is in place. Analyst Colin warned that the recent rebounds don’t yet confirm a bear‑market trough. He noted the $60,000 low in February arrived only four months into what is typically a 12‑month cycle, making it statistically unlikely to be the ultimate bottom. Bitcoin’s decline from its October 2025 peak is about 53%, smaller than the roughly 77% drawdowns seen in some prior cycles; the bear phase may therefore be shorter this time, but Colin cautioned against assuming it will be dramatically truncated.
In short, geopolitical headlines are the proximate driver of near‑term price swings, while macro and positioning trends — open interest, leverage and central bank policy outlook — will determine how sustainable any rally proves. Traders should weigh the upside potential against the elevated risk of rapid squeezes if sentiment reverses.