Grayscale’s head of research says the main obstacle to addressing the quantum threat to Bitcoin may be social — getting the community to agree on a course of action — rather than purely technical.
A March 30 paper from Google renewed attention by suggesting a quantum computer might be able to break cryptography protecting Bitcoin with fewer resources than previously thought. Zach Pandl of Grayscale argued Bitcoin is less exposed than many cryptocurrencies: its UTXO model, proof-of-work consensus, lack of native smart contracts, and the fact that certain address types aren’t vulnerable reduce its technical risk.
The bigger issue, Pandl said, is deciding what to do about coins whose private keys are lost or inaccessible — roughly 1.7 million BTC in early P2PK addresses, including an estimated 1 million BTC tied to Satoshi. The community faces three main options: burn those coins, deliberately slow any future spending from vulnerable addresses (for example by limiting release rates), or take no action. All are technically possible; the challenge lies in reaching consensus, Pandl noted, pointing to Bitcoin’s history of heated debates over protocol changes — for example the 2023 dispute over Ordinals and use of blockspace.
Pandl cautioned there is no immediate security threat to public blockchains from quantum computers today, but urged that work should begin now. Blockchains need to plan for post-quantum cryptography. Some projects are already experimenting: Solana and the XRP Ledger are testing post-quantum approaches, and the Ethereum Foundation published a post-quantum roadmap in February.
For investors, Pandl’s message was calm but proactive: don’t panic now, but accelerate preparations for a post-quantum future.
About 1.7 million BTC is vulnerable to the quantum threat. Source: Grayscale
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