Bitcoin (BTC) traders holding 100–10,000 BTC realized losses averaging $337 million per day in Q1 2026, the worst quarter since 2022, according to Glassnode.
Key takeaways:
– Bitcoin fell more than 20%, with realized-loss pace not seen since 2022.
– Long-term holders are also selling at a loss, signaling capitulation and more potential downside.
BTC whales, sharks realized $30.91 billion loss in 2026
Realized Loss measures the dollar value of losses when BTC is sold on-chain below its purchase price. Two wallet cohorts show clear signs of capitulation: addresses holding 100–1,000 BTC (“sharks,” often mid-sized funds or wealthy investors) and those holding 1,000–10,000 BTC (whales).
In Q1, sharks realized losses at about $188.5 million per day, while whales added roughly $147.5 million daily. Combined, these entities have locked in approximately $30.91 billion in realized losses so far in 2026.
Bitcoin’s realized losses for these high-net-worth cohorts rank among the most severe on record, trailing only Q2 2022’s roughly $396 million daily average. In Q2 2022, BTC’s price fell over 50% (and another 20% by year-end) as the Terra collapse, Celsius freeze and Three Arrows failure triggered panic, draining liquidity and confidence.
In 2026, pressure has come from different sources, including Iran war-driven inflation fears, quantum-security risk concerns, and broader stress in the AI-led risk trade. As a result, whales and sharks are cutting losses now because they expect further price weakness, raising the odds of a 2022-like bear market with a potential bottom in Q4 2026.
Bitcoin’s long-term holders add to downside risks
Glassnode’s Long-Term Holder (LTH) Realized Loss, which tracks losses by investors who held coins for more than six months before selling, remains elevated at around $200 million per day on a 30-day average since November 2025.
“A meaningful cooldown toward levels below $25M per day would represent a more compelling signal of exhaustion in selling pressure,” Glassnode analysts said in their weekly report, adding that such a cooldown is “a prerequisite for the base formation that historically precedes a sustainable bull market transition.”
Together, these headwinds have fueled calls for a deeper BTC correction, with some analysts pointing to the $40,000–$50,000 range as a possible bottom.
BTC realized loss by wallet size. Source: Glassnode
BTC realized loss by wallet size (2022). Source: Glassnode
BTC/USD three-month performance chart. Source: TradingView
BTC realized loss by LTH/STH (30-day MA). Source: Glassnode
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