Bitcoin (BTC) has recovered roughly 25% from a multi-year low below $60,000, and momentum indicators are flashing rare “buy” signals that suggest a significant move may be ahead.
Key takeaways:
– Weekly MACD and RSI point to a possible sharp BTC rally in the coming days.
– Bitcoin needs to reclaim and hold $78,000 to sustain upward momentum.
Price action and indicators
TradingView data showed BTC/USD near $75,300, about 4% below a recent 10-week high of $78,380. A pullback followed geopolitical and macro uncertainty, but technical indicators still favor upside.
On the weekly chart, analyst Sykodelic highlighted a bullish MACD crossover occurring after the MACD dropped to its lowest level on record. Historically, weekly MACD bullish crosses have preceded large BTC rallies—examples include substantial gains after crossovers in prior cycles. Analyst Mikybull Crypto noted that a big move often follows this weekly MACD bullish cross.
The weekly RSI has recovered to about 43 from a mid-February low near 21. Material Indicators noted that holding weekly RSI above roughly 41 is one of the “macro things” that signal a validated bull market. Past instances where RSI and MACD aligned preceded major percentage rallies.
Fundamentals and flows
Analysts emphasize that technical signals need support from real money flows: sustained spot market buying and continued inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs would strengthen the bullish case. Without healthy demand, technical signals risk being invalidated.
Key levels to watch
The critical next step for bulls is flipping resistance at $78,000 into support. Lower-timeframe analysis shows BTC is pushing into a major supply zone near $75,000–$78,000, which has acted as resistance. A clean breakout above this zone could extend the move toward new highs; failure to break could produce a pullback toward $68,000–$70,000.
Some analysts warn that failure to clear $78,000 could indicate a “bull trap,” keeping downside risk in focus. Conversely, a weekly/daily close above the $76,000–$78,000 area would confirm buyer control and open a path toward targets such as $84,000.
Conclusion
Weekly MACD and RSI alignments, if supported by ongoing ETF inflows and spot buying, point toward a meaningful upside move. The decisive event in the near term is reclaiming and holding the $78,000 area; a successful flip would validate the bullish setup, while rejection could lead to a corrective retracement.
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