A new on-chain analysis from CryptoQuant shows that large Bitcoin holders have largely stopped adding to their positions, signaling weakening structural demand for the market. Bitcoin is trading just under $74,000 as bulls work to prevent a slide back toward the $70,000 support zone.
According to the report, two wallet cohorts that often presage long-term trend shifts are showing worrying patterns. Dolphin wallets (holding 100–1,000 BTC) have posted declining highs since September 2025, while whale balances (roughly 1,000–10,000 BTC, excluding exchange and miner addresses) have been essentially flat since February 2026. That lack of sustained accumulation from mid-to-large holders suggests reduced buying pressure at higher price levels.
This behaviour echoes conditions seen in the 2022 bear market, when on-chain metrics signaled exhaustion among major holders ahead of extended weakness. On-chain buying velocity is an important leading indicator: large, coordinated accumulation across holder types tends to precede major rallies, and that broad-based demand is not evident now.
Some institutional buyers—most notably big corporate allocators—continue to purchase meaningful amounts, but retail participation appears muted and some ETF flows have been outflows or intermittently negative. In short, significant demand from multiple buyer classes is missing, which limits the upside and increases the chance of protracted consolidation or downward pressure.
At the same time, Long-Term Holders (LTHs)—addresses that have held BTC for at least 155 days—are at multi-year highs. High LTH concentration historically matters: when LTHs accumulate, it can fuel later bull markets, but if liquidity stays low for long periods these holders may eventually capitulate, producing short-term price dips.
Price action in May illustrates the tug-of-war: Bitcoin attempted to reclaim the $80,000 resistance but failed, and bulls have since been defending against a return to $70,000. With broader markets showing stronger momentum than crypto in recent weeks, investor interest in the sector appears subdued, and any sustained rebound may take time to materialize.
Bottom line: weakening on-chain demand among dolphins and whales, combined with elevated LTH exposure and tepid retail and ETF support, raises the odds of further downside or extended sideways action. It doesn’t guarantee a crash, but it does increase the risk of price declines if buying pressure doesn’t re-emerge.
