Bitcoin traders holding between 100 and 10,000 BTC realized cumulative losses averaging about $337 million per day in Q1 2026, the largest quarterly pace since 2022, according to on-chain data from Glassnode.
Key points:
– BTC fell more than 20% in the quarter, driving a realized-loss pace not seen since mid‑2022.
– Long-term holders are also selling at losses, suggesting capitulation that could signal further downside.
What realized loss means
Realized loss measures the dollar value of coins sold on-chain for less than their purchase price. Two wallet cohorts show pronounced capitulation: addresses holding 100–1,000 BTC (commonly called “sharks,” often mid-sized funds or wealthy individuals) and those holding 1,000–10,000 BTC (“whales”).
Sharks realized losses at roughly $188.5 million per day in Q1, while whales added about $147.5 million per day. Combined, those groups have crystallized approximately $30.91 billion in realized losses so far in 2026.
How this compares to 2022
Those daily loss figures for high‑net‑worth cohorts are among the largest on record, second only to Q2 2022, when realized losses averaged about $396 million per day amid the Terra collapse, liquidity seizures at Celsius and the failure of Three Arrows Capital. That 2022 episode saw BTC price drops exceeding 50% and further weakness into year‑end.
Drivers in 2026
The current wave of selling has different catalysts: inflation concerns tied to geopolitical tensions in Iran, worries about quantum‑security risks to cryptography, and broader volatility in AI-driven risk trades. Many large holders appear to be cutting positions in anticipation of continued price weakness, raising the possibility of a prolonged bear phase with a potential cycle low in Q4 2026.
Long-term holders and exhaustion signals
Glassnode’s Long-Term Holder (LTH) Realized Loss — tracking coins held at least six months before sale — has also been elevated, running around $200 million per day on a 30‑day average since November 2025. Glassnode analysts note that a sustained cooldown toward levels below roughly $25 million per day would be a more convincing sign that selling pressure is exhausted and that a base formation may be underway, a historical precursor to a durable bull market turn.
Some market observers now point to the $40,000–$50,000 range as a possible bottom if selling continues to intensify.
Disclaimer: This summary is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All trading and investing carry risk; readers should perform independent research before making financial decisions. No guarantee is made regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information presented, and reliance on it is at the reader’s own risk.