CryptoQuant data indicates the portion of Bitcoin supply sitting in profit or loss is moving back toward levels seen in the 2022 bear market. Roughly 11.2 million BTC are currently in profit, while about 8.2 million BTC are in loss, figures that platforms including Glassnode say haven’t been seen since late 2022.
CryptoQuant analyst “Darkfost” noted the proximity to prior cycle lows, observing that bear-market troughs previously registered around 9–10.6 million BTC in profit. Metrics drifting toward those ranges have prompted debate over whether Bitcoin is nearing a market bottom or if further weakness lies ahead.
Not all analysts interpret the readings as a clear sign of undervaluation. Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at exchange Bitrue, argues the data points to rising market stress rather than immediate bargain conditions. He says true capitulation in 2022 produced deeper losses—supply in loss exceeded 50%, and supply in profit dropped to roughly 45% or lower—while indicators such as net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) and market-value-to-realized-value (MVRV) hit extreme lows.
Adziima describes the current backdrop as an early-to-mid bear transition and suggests a potential structural bottom might sit near $55,000, with additional downside or extended consolidation possible before any full reset.
On a broader cycle basis, Bitcoin is down about 52% from its current-cycle all-time high, a milder drawdown than prior bear markets that saw losses of 77% to 84% from their peaks.
Macroeconomic conditions are also weighing on crypto. Analyst Timothy Peterson observed that Bitcoin tends to struggle when the U.S. dollar is strong and the Chinese yuan is weak, a combination that tightens global liquidity. Higher dollar yields have been drawing capital into cash and bonds, dampening risk appetite until U.S. interest rates retreat—an outcome Peterson sees as unlikely before the second half of 2026, and perhaps not until 2027. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) has risen roughly 5% over the past two months.
Taken together, on-chain supply metrics and macro signals suggest the market may be approaching levels seen in the previous crypto downturn, but analysts differ on whether that means an imminent bottom or more negative pressure ahead. Readers should consider multiple data points and do their own research when assessing market risk.