A renewed technical setup has some traders saying Bitcoin (BTC) is tracing the end of its 2022–23 bear market almost exactly, driven chiefly by patterns in the stochastic relative strength index (stoch RSI).
What traders are seeing
– The stoch RSI, a faster-moving variant of the standard RSI that flags overbought above ~70/100 and oversold below ~30/100, is showing a near-match to the move that preceded the 2023 rebound.
– In an X post, trader Quantum Ascend compared the current daily stoch RSI and price action to the early-2023 sequence: a double bottom on stoch RSI followed by a strong uptick after BTC bottomed near $15,600. Today’s price and stoch RSI have formed two local lows (late January and late March) with the oscillator now attempting to clear the 50/100 midpoint, a bullish development if it holds.
Weekly RSI and broader context
– Market watchers are also tracking the standard weekly RSI for signs of a bullish divergence — a higher low in RSI while price stays flat or makes a lower low — which would echo the early-2023 setup. Trader CryptoJelleNL pointed to a possible higher low developing and recommended waiting a few weeks for confirmation.
– Earlier this year the weekly RSI hit an unusually deep trough that has not been revisited in 2026, according to TradingView data, adding weight to the idea that broader momentum conditions could be improving.
Bearish risks remain
– Not all analysts are convinced a bottom is set. Some warn a daily bear-flag breakdown could still push prices lower. Analyst Aksel Kibar said the next few days should reveal whether the daily chart pattern is repeating or breaking down.
This rewrite is for informational purposes and is not investment advice. All trading and investing carry risk; readers should do their own research and consider consulting a professional. The information presented is not guaranteed complete or accurate and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for investment decisions.